{"id":8856,"date":"2022-10-20T09:41:47","date_gmt":"2022-10-20T02:41:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/?p=8856"},"modified":"2022-11-30T09:47:56","modified_gmt":"2022-11-30T02:47:56","slug":"kinh-te-vi-mo-da-bi-lang-quen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/vi\/kinh-te-vi-mo-da-bi-lang-quen\/","title":{"rendered":"Kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb l\u00e3ng qu\u00ean?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng Quang H\u00f9ng<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Khi \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u0103m 2008-2009 v\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf k\u00e9o d\u00e0i sau \u0111\u00f3, Hoa k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 phi ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng, m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE). S\u1edf d\u0129 ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 phi ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng v\u00ec trong l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u00fang. V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00fac b\u1ea5y gi\u1edd l\u00e0 Ben Bernanke \u0111\u00e3 ch\u00e2m bi\u1ebfm v\u1ec1 ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang Hoa k\u1ef3, \u201cCh\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft\u201d. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i nh\u01b0 v\u1eady v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 n\u00f3i chung, theo ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc \u0111\u1eb1ng sau c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u00f3. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ng\u00e0y nay th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean \u201ck\u00edch th\u00edch\u201d n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 \u201cch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i\u201d th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, song c\u00e1c l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i cho r\u1eb1ng th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 t\u1ef1 nguy\u00ean, ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p n\u00e0o trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

B\u1ecf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc sang m\u1ed9t b\u00ean, kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc ng\u00e0y nay \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf k\u1ef7, ch\u1ec9 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c khan hi\u1ebfm th\u00f4ng qua th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t b\u1edfi Iriving Fisher. \u0110\u1ebfn nay cho d\u00f9 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ea1nh song th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p trung t\u00e2m v\u1eabn l\u00e0: H\u00e3y tin v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf k\u1ef7. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 h\u1ecd gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u00ec r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi v\u00e0 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c n\u00ean nh\u00ecn chung c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ea7u trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u, gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 t\u1eeb ph\u00eda t\u1ed5ng cung. Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc v\u00e0o th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y, m\u00e0 ng\u00e0y nay ch\u00fang ta g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n, tin r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng chu k\u1ef3 v\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 chu k\u1ef3 v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 b\u1edfi l\u1ebd h\u1ecd tin r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd linh h\u1ecdat \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1ec1 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. V\u00e0 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf lu\u00f4n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed dung \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7, m\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u00eap t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ef1 nguy\u1ec7n, d\u1ea1ng th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 30 \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 25% v\u00e0 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp ni\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m cho ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u00eau tan v\u00e0 ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn vai tr\u00f2 ti\u00ean \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n. Khi suy tho\u00e1i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u1eabn kh\u0103ng kh\u0103ng cho r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lu\u00f4n \u0111\u00fang v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed5 l\u1ed7i nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p cao l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1, s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, nghi\u1ec7p \u0111o\u00e0n lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0m cho ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng linh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean th\u1eadt kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn v\u1edbi c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch r\u1eb1ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111o\u00e0n lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng ki\u00ean quy\u1ebft t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ea5p khi m\u00e0 m\u00ecnh th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1i sao t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u00eap cao khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf suy tho\u00e1i so v\u1edbi l\u00fac b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh b\u1ea5t l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n, J.M. Keynes \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t khung l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft thay th\u1ebf cho c\u00e1c l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft hi\u1ec7n th\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft t\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u s\u1ef1 ra \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc v\u0129 m\u00f4 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean thuy\u1ebft c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung-c\u1ea7u th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3. Trong t\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m n\u00e0y, Keynes c\u1ef1 tuy\u1ec7t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 do ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi cho r\u1eb1ng th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m v\u00e0 t\u00ednh \u01b0a th\u00edch thanh kho\u1ea3n. V\u1ec1 ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 t\u01b0 duy, Keynes kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 ra r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00fang nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng l\u00e2p lu\u1eadn, con ng\u01b0\u1eddi lu\u00f4n bi\u1ebft nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00ecnh c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t (con ng\u01b0\u1eddi kinh t\u1ebf). Theo Keynes trong cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 ch\u1ecbu h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec h\u1ecd l\u00e0m ngay c\u1ea3 khi h\u1ecd bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng m\u00ecnh kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. \u0110\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1eddng mang t\u00ednh b\u1ea3n n\u0103ng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 duy l\u00fd, vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd. Tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i t\u00e2m l\u00fd bi quan hay l\u1ea1c quan \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c ra c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1edf n\u00ean bi quan v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0 h\u1ecd quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u1ea3m chi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Trong t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m s\u1ebd nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft (th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m). C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y s\u1ebd nhanh ch\u00f3ng b\u1ecb lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf, v\u00ec \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 gi\u1ea3m s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m c\u1ea7u cho vay v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m. \u0110\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n v\u00e0 chi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i ngay sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m v\u00e0 chi cho \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1eb1ng nhau. Keynes cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra v\u00ec th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ch\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n c\u1ea1nh tranh ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n \u0111\u1eb7t ni\u1ec1m tin. Khi chi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 gi\u1ea3m, s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed5ng chi ti\u00eau ho\u1eb7c t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7u d\u1ee5ng (c\u1ea7u th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi s\u1ee9c mua). M\u1ed9t khi t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7u dung gi\u1ea3m, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho ngo\u00e0i k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch gia t\u0103ng do h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 b\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, l\u01a1i nhu\u1eadn gi\u1ea3m bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ebd thu h\u1eb9p s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 gi\u1ea3m vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m. S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t thu h\u1eb9p s\u1ebd l\u00e0m thu nh\u1eadp gi\u1ea3m k\u00e9o theo ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m gi\u1ea3m v\u00ec ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m l\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a thu nh\u00e2p sau chi cho ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng nh\u01b0ng chi cho ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng l\u00e0 b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u1ec1u. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m s\u1ebd thu h\u1eb9p lai, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1ch m\u00e0 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m gi\u1ea3m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng chi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 t\u0103ng t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7u d\u1ee5ng. Keynes kh\u00f4ng tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ec3 chi cho \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u0103ng tr\u1edf lai sao cho t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7u dung \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i s\u1eed dung c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 n\u00e2ng m\u1ee9c t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7u d\u1ee5ng l\u00ean nh\u1eb1m duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7u d\u1ee5ng x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u01a1ng thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda cung nh\u01b0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c. T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy tho\u00e1i x\u1ea3y ra l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7u d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kho\u00e1 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng thu\u1ed1c ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i m\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p do suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf g\u00e2y ra.\u1ede \u0111\u00e2y Keynes kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 mu\u1ed1n ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, \u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 mu\u1ed1n ch\u1ec9nh s\u1eeda l\u1ea1i n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i thay th\u1ebf ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, Keynes cho r\u1eb1ng khi \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi t\u00ednh b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc, ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n trao \u0111\u1ed5i hay \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb t\u00ednh to\u00e1n nh\u01b0 c\u00e1ch ngh\u0129 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u00e0 c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u00e2n c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n sau n\u00e0y. Ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng n\u00e0y, Keynes cho r\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n c\u00f2n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p thanh kho\u1ea3n, s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a thanh kho\u1ea3n l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft nh\u1eb1m thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady Keynes cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t th\u1ee9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n, ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ph\u1ea3i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh theo th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ni\u1ec1m tin cho m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi, ti\u1ec1n c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a thanh kho\u1ea3n m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1ea1o ra ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 trung gian t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ec1n ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m qua k\u00eanh chi cho \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o ra ti\u1ec1n nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng c\u1ea7u thanh kho\u1ea3n mang t\u00ednh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u00e0 c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u00e2n c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng ch\u00fa \u00fd qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00ecn ch\u00fang m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n vay ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef1 do, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t. Keynes cho r\u1eb1ng th\u01b0c t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm ti\u1ec1n t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n, vi\u1ec7c mua b\u00e1n m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o l\u01a1i nhu\u1eadn cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng m\u00e0 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta k\u1ef3 vong. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh vi b\u1ea7y \u0111\u00e0n th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ea5y tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u00e0m cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1n s\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1. C\u01a1n s\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 tham gia v\u00e0o c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch b\u1edfi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01a1i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eeb hoat \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1ea3o l\u00e3nh, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y mua b\u00e1n c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. Khi c\u01a1n s\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn dung cho c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 n\u00e0y. L\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia thay v\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o hoat \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00e2y gi\u1edd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u201cs\u00f2ng b\u00e0i\u201d. T\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u1ea1o ra b\u1edfi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng g\u1eafn li\u1ec1n v\u1edbi n\u1ee3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra. C\u01a1n s\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 t\u1ea1o ra bong b\u00f3ng. Khi bong b\u00f3ng v\u1ee1, gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u01a1i t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 g\u00e1nh chiu t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t n\u0103ng n\u1ec1 v\u1edbi n\u1ee3 n\u1ea7n. T\u00e0i s\u1ea3n trong c\u00e1c b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng b\u1ecb thu h\u1eb9p d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thanh to\u00e1n. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00e1o ch\u1ea1y ra kh\u1ecfi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng k\u00e9o theo s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ea3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf cho th\u1ea5y t\u00ednh b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u00f2n non tr\u1ebb n\u00e0y khi ra \u0111\u1eddi ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn ngay v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch nh\u01b0 thi\u1ebfu n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1i sao v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p cao nh\u01b0ng ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m. V\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf s\u00e1ng gi\u00e1 l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 theo thuy\u1ebft \u0111inh m\u1ec7nh, nh\u01b0 Joseph Schumpeter, coi vi\u1ec7c suy tho\u00e1i nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho b\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp theo. Nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0y cho r\u1eb1ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh khi ph\u00e1t sinh t\u1eeb n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0o t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 sai l\u1ec7ch v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edbc nguy c\u01a1 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ebfp theo. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc kh\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c ph\u00e1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a Keynes v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 Milton Friedman \u1edf \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Chicago, ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u00e0 ngay t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1953 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u1edbi ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn cho ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. \u00d4ng kh\u00f4ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 cho s\u1ef1 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u00ecnh \u1ed5n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. \u0110\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ng\u1eeba suy tho\u00e1i, theo \u00f4ng s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 n\u1ebfu c\u00f3, ch\u1ec9 \u1edf m\u1ee9c r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf nh\u01b0 duy tr\u00ec t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cung ti\u1ec1n \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee7. \u00d4ng t\u1eebng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu C\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang Hoa k\u1ef3 c\u00f3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ee3p l\u00fd, \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ch\u1ecbu r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch, l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t b\u1edfi Keynes \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n trong su\u1ed1t nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 50 v\u00e0 60. M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0 do th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0y kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft Keynes. Khi chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1940, t\u0103ng t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3ng 16% GDP n\u0103m 1939 l\u00ean 48% GDP n\u0103m 1944, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb 17,2% xu\u1ed1ng 1,2%. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m t\u0103ng ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0o l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft Keynes. Nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 l\u1ebd y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 trung t\u00e2m \u0111\u1eb1ng sau s\u1ef1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed3n c\u1ee7a L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft T\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 trong ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p kinh t\u1ebf l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1940. Nh\u1eefng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u1ee7a b\u1ed9 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1edfi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u theo L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft T\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t. Trong su\u1ed1t nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1960, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean l\u00fd c\u1ee7a L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft T\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t mang l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Song khi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 70 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n th\u00ec s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n b\u00e1c l\u1ea1i l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft Keynes c\u1ee7a Milton Friedman tr\u1edf n\u00ean m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n. M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ngh\u00e8o n\u00e0n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng cao trong khi kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u00eap gia t\u0103ng, b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00e0y tr\u00e1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft Keynes d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n. Milton Friedman s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u201cgi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u00edch nghi\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ee9ng minh r\u1eb1ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa lam ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u00eap. \u00d4ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1: \u201cLu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi gi\u1eefa l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e2u d\u00e0i.<\/em>\u201d Theo \u00f4ng, sau m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0a k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0o quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, l\u00e0m v\u00f4 hi\u1ec7u h\u00f3a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c n\u00e0o c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, m\u1ed9t l\u00fd do l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m cao h\u01a1n l\u00e0 do thu\u00ea nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n s\u1ebd tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i h\u01a1n cho ch\u1ee7 doanh nghi\u1ec7p khi gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng nhanh h\u01a1n ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng s\u1ee9c mua c\u1ee7a l\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m v\u00ec l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd \u0111\u00f2i tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn l\u01b0\u01a1ng cao h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1ec3 cho l\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng k\u1ecbp v\u1edbi gi\u00e1. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0, sau khi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t di\u1ec5n ra m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111em l\u1ea1i s\u1ee9c t\u0103ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 ban \u0111\u1ea7u n\u1eefa. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean n\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t di\u1ec5n ra kh\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 mong \u0111\u1ee3i. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u0111\u00ecnh l\u1ea1m (stagflation).<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng sau \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf thu\u1ed9c ph\u00e1i t\u00e2n c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y nh\u1eefng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a Friedman \u0111i xa h\u01a1n n\u1eefa nh\u1eb1m ch\u1ed1ng lai Keynes. H\u1ecd l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0o \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 gi\u1eefa l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p ngay c\u1ea3 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, b\u1edfi v\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n s\u1ebd ti\u00ean li\u1ec7u c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 d\u00f9ng ti\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f3, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, v\u00e0o trong vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng. H\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 \u201cgi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd\u201d, lan r\u1ed9ng ra trong gi\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt. H\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y ra \u0111\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u00f2n non tr\u1ebb \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t b\u1edfi Keynes ra kh\u1ecfi kinh t\u1ebf hoc. H\u1ecd thay th\u1ebf quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Keynes v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n b\u1eb1ng \u201cgi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3\u201d \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 x\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1edfi Eugene Fama t\u1eeb \u0110H Chicago, gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y cho r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 th\u00f4ng tin s\u1eb5n c\u00f3, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n lu\u00f4n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00fang, gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u00fang gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng bong b\u00f3ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i nhu\u00e2n nh\u01b0 Keynes \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft \u0111\u1eb9p v\u00e0 r\u1ea5t logic d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ee3p l\u00fd gi\u1eefa l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u1ed1n (CAPM) l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1eb9p \u0111\u1ebb v\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1eefu \u00edch c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3i Nobel kinh t\u1ebf cho t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh. Kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e2y quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4, v\u1edbi gi\u1ea3 thi\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea1nh tranh ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi l\u00fd thuy\u00eat s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n. H\u1ecd quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 t\u01b0 duy v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n lu\u00f4n bi\u1ebft nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00ecnh c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c khan hi\u1ebfm m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3.<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5, M\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 quan tr\u1ecdng trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec g\u00e2y ra th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p? C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n trong s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4. Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng lu\u00f4n \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa th\u1eddi gian nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp, c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi gian nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng. M\u1ed9t th\u1ee3 l\u00e0m khung xe y\u00eau c\u1ea7u m\u1ee9c ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng 150 ngh\u00ecn \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1ed9t gi\u1edd t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 kh\u00f3 nh\u1ecdc m\u00e0 \u00f4ng ta ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh ch\u1ecbu, nh\u01b0ng \u00f4ng ta ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ec9 v\u1edbi 130 \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1ed7i gi\u1edd tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ee3 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i thay v\u00ec l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c. L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u1ef1 nguy\u1ec7n, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1edf th\u00edch c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y, c\u00e1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c mang t\u00ednh t\u1ef1 nguy\u1ec7n nh\u1eb1m t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a s\u1ef1 th\u1ecfa m\u00e3n c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do c\u1ea7u lao \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a: h\u1ecd l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c khan hi\u1ebfm sao cho m\u1ee9c h\u1eefu d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c t\u1ed1i \u0111a. C\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1. V\u00ec v\u1eady, th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u1ed1i \u01b0u c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf g\u00e2y ra, th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p n\u00e0y t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i ngay c\u1ea3 khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. V\u00ec v\u1eady, n\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng cung ti\u1ec1n trong n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 duy nh\u1ea5t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh ch\u1ecbu s\u1ebd l\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, b\u1edfi v\u00ec m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng cung lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Do \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u1ec9 n\u00ean quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 thay v\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh t\u1ebf n\u00f3i chung, m\u00e0 t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao ph\u00f3 cho m\u1ed9t ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb c\u00e1m d\u1ed7 v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 v\u1eady kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111i theo con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 lo s\u1ee3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc logic c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n h\u1ecd nh\u1eadn ra n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4 cho ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u1ea3 thi\u1ebft h\u00e0nh vi duy l\u00fd v\u00e0 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u00f4ng qua th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea1nh tranh l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. Trong 2 n\u0103m 1973-1974, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu m\u1ea5t 48% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ho\u0103c trong v\u1ee5 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 n\u0103m 1987 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Dow m\u1ea5t 23% ch\u1ec9 trong 1 ng\u00e0y m\u00e0 ch\u1eb3ng hi\u1ec3u nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n. Sau nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 ch\u00fat nghi ng\u1edd v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ef1 nh\u1eadn m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 \u201ct\u00e2n Keynes\u201d c\u0169ng \u0111i theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chung nh\u01b0 tin v\u00e0o h\u00e0nh vi duy l\u00fd c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chung l\u00e0 \u0111\u00fang song h\u1ecd v\u1eabn tin v\u00e0o vai tr\u00f2 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ea5t nghi\u00eap \u201ckh\u00f4ng t\u1ef1 nguy\u1ec7n\u201d trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa Kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ebft b\u1edfi Daron Acemoglu c\u1ee7a MIT, David Laibson c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Harvard v\u00e0 John List c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Chicago \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ba lo\u1ea1i th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u201ckh\u00f4ng t\u1ef1 nguy\u1ec7n\u201d: ma s\u00e1t, c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3. Th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p ma s\u00e1t n\u1ea3y sinh b\u1edfi v\u00ec t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian. Th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u ph\u00e1t sinh do s\u1ef1 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng khi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ea7u lao \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng kh\u1edbp v\u1edbi l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p theo chu k\u1ef3 x\u1ea3y ra do \u201cc\u00fa s\u1ed1c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \/ t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh\u201d v\u00e0 \u201c\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i b\u1edfi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n chi ti\u00eau gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng\u201d. S\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n chi ti\u00eau, m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u0103ng ho\u1eb7c gi\u1ea3m chi ti\u00eau n\u00e0o, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn duy nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u00f2n s\u00f3t l\u1ea1i sau c\u00e1i ch\u1ebft c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Keynes. Ngay c\u1ea3 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i – s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng 0 – tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00f3 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh 2008-09 l\u00e0m h\u1ed3i sinh n\u00f3.<\/p>\n

T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u0169ng nh\u1eadn ra t\u00ednh b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 tin v\u00e0o vai tr\u00f2 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. N\u0103m nay gi\u1ea3i th\u01b0\u1edfng Nobel kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trao cho Bernanke, Diamond v\u00e0 Dybvig v\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p cho nh\u1eefng ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 kinh t\u1ebf. C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 80 h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0o kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh gi\u00fap cho ta hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 30, trong \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ef1 th\u00e1o ch\u1ea1y kh\u1ecfi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0m cho cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tr\u1edf n\u00ean nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i. Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n h\u1ecd c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra c\u00e1ch kh\u1eafc ch\u1ebf v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 nh\u01b0 b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1n g\u1edfi v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho vay cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng. H\u1ecd t\u1ef1 tin cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c th\u00e1o ch\u1ea1y kh\u1ecfi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng k\u00e9o theo m\u1ed9t c\u01a1n ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 30 c\u00f3 l\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n x\u1ea3y ra n\u1eefa b\u1edfi l\u1ebd ng\u00e0y nay ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi [FDIC] v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho vay cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. Bernanke \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i:<\/p>\n

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Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 r\u1ea5t cao. V\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd s\u1eeda sai v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t l\u00fac n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3. \u0110\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2006, 2007, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u0169ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng cho vay d\u01b0\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n. \u0110i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ai l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 t\u00ednh d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u00f3i chung tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c th\u00e1o ch\u1ea1y, m\u1ed9t c\u01a1n ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n. B\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ea5y, v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19, \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20, ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd ch\u1ea1y \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, r\u00fat ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u x\u1ea3y ra trong c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1930. V\u00ec v\u1eady, b\u00e2y gi\u1edd ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi [FDIC]. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 s\u1eafp x\u1ea3y ra.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ng\u00e0y nay ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 30, c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng hoat \u0111\u1ed9ng trong b\u00f3ng t\u1ed1i v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 b\u1edfi c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1n g\u1edfi [FDIC]. Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec v\u1eady khi Bernanke n\u1eafm gi\u1eef vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang ( 2006 \u2013 2014) \u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u0103m 2008 v\u00e0 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p h\u1eefu hi\u1ec7u ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n n\u00f3 k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0 gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t r\u1ea5t cao, n\u1ee3 n\u1ea7n ch\u1ed3ng ch\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n nghi ng\u1edd g\u00ec n\u1eefa, \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa x\u1ea3y ra ngo\u00e0i d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc c\u1ee7a Keynes \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1. M\u0103c d\u00f9 v\u1eady, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u00e2n c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u1eabn tin r\u1eb1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 \u0111\u00fang, ch\u1ec9 th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng suy tho\u00e1i mang t\u00ednh ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u1ed1 h\u1eefu n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. Do \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u201ckh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i n\u1eefa\u201d, v\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c quy \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n cho c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 lu\u1ed3ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef1 do l\u01b0u chuy\u1ec3n, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n hay ma s\u00e1t n\u00e0o l\u00e0m hao h\u1ee5t hay gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n lu\u1ed3ng chi ti\u00eau trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. Trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 suy tho\u00e1i – tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng – h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n nay mi\u1ec5n c\u01b0\u1ee1ng cho r\u1eb1ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u1ea7u lao \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e2y l\u1ea1i ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p c\u1ee7a Keynes. Nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc \u0111o\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i Nobel kinh t\u1ebf Robert Lucas \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2009, \u201cT\u00f4i \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo ph\u00e1i Keynes trong t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7\u201d. Nh\u01b0ng trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Lucas \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 ng\u00e0y nay ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00e0nh cho nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. Nh\u01b0ng b\u1edfi v\u00ec kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c – m\u00e0 theo nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u00e0 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng mong \u0111\u1ee3i \u2013 n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft cho c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch k\u00edch th\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf. Cho d\u00f9 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 b\u00e1c b\u1ecf t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Keynes, h\u1ecd ch\u1ec9 xem cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a Keynes kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ghi ch\u00fa ti\u1ec7n d\u1ee5ng trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p c\u1ea7n d\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 cho nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u01a1p kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ho\u1eb7c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a. C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng cung ti\u1ec1n cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ec3 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch h\u1ecd thu\u00ea th\u00eam c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n, ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gia t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau ho\u1eb7c c\u0103t gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf. Nh\u01b0ng khi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o C\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang Hoa k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7t ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 do, d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn cho c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf. Th\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Bernanke \u201cb\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n\u201d (d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n, QE, b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch C\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang Hoa k\u1ef3 mua v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o b\u1eb1ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p) l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i 2008-09 c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang Hoa k\u1ef3. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u01a1 s\u1edf t\u0103ng l\u00ean tr\u00ean 3 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 Bernanke l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang . C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang tin r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang v\u00e0 ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 bu\u1ed9c h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u l\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n trong danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m cho c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n. Khi gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u00e0y gia t\u0103ng, m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t t\u1ea1o ra hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i k\u00edch th\u00edch chi cho ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n c\u00f9ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 vay ti\u1ec1n nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n do gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p t\u0103ng. K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p 2 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2%, \u0111\u01b0a s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 3% v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n nay ph\u1ea3i th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn suy tho\u00e1i l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7u dung v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u1ed1ng suy tho\u00e1i b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c \u201cb\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n\u201d v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec Bernanke n\u00f3i c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 tr\u00ean l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf. Nh\u01b0ng ngay c\u1ea3 tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ki\u1ec3u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00ec b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0o k\u1ec3 tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. C\u00e1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng th\u1eafng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3m ph\u00e1t m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 b\u01a1m r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ti\u1ec1n cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch x\u1ea3y ra. D\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa cung ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t . C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n, QE, bi\u1ec7n minh r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 s\u1ebd c\u00f2n t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 n\u00f3. Song kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ee9ng minh ho\u1eb7c b\u00e1c b\u1ecf n\u00f3.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19 \u0111\u00e3 bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 mi\u1ec5n c\u01b0\u1ee1ng quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kho\u00e1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng m\u00e0 t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t do th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf c\u1eeda tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda do gi\u00e1n c\u00e1ch x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. K\u00edch th\u00edch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u th\u1eadt k\u1ef3 di\u1ec7u trong cu\u1ed9c phong t\u1ecfa l\u1edbn do \u0110\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19 g\u00e2y ra l\u00e0 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 l\u1ea1i b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb x\u00f3i m\u00f2n v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n khi \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch l\u1eafng xu\u1ed1ng. S\u1ed1 chi ti\u00eau n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khuy\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a v\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c nh\u00e2n d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2021. N\u00f3i v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a, hai gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc Alan Auerbach v\u00e0 Yuriy Gorodnichenko c\u1ee7a Tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc California, Berkeley trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 th\u1eeba nh\u00e2n r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ea1i dich COVID-19 \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ea1y l\u1ea1i cho h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a m\u00e0 h\u1ecd v\u1ed1n qu\u00ean t\u1eeb l\u00e2u. Do \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh kh\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 Bernanke \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00ec b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c b\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u00ean Bang Hoa k\u1ef3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng g\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u trong khi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kho\u00e1 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf r\u01a1i v\u00e0o b\u1eaby thanh kho\u1ea3n nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Keynes.<\/p>\n

Keynes \u0111\u00e3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng ch\u00fang ta lu\u00f4n \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc v\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta \u201ckh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra\u201d, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao \u00f4ng b\u00e1c b\u1ecf quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf lu\u00f4n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean b\u1edfi l\u1ebd theo Keynes c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 n\u1ed9i sinh v\u00e0 do ch\u00ednh hoat \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ea1o ra. D\u01b0\u1edbi c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 b\u00e2y gi\u1edd n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf c\u1eeda tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i sau \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch, c\u01a1 s\u1edf l\u00fd lu\u1eadn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n c\u1ea7n n\u1eefa. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tin r\u1eb1ng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd t\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i nh\u01b0 th\u1ec3 ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 chuy\u1ec7n g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra. Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ecdi vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, d\u00f9 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 qua, c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn c\u00f2n \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ee7a h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111ang n\u1eafm gi\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch QE v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t zero tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng bong b\u00f3ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n-c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, t\u00edn dung, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n- kh\u1eafp n\u01a1i, t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n cho \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ti\u1ec1n l\u1edbn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u01a1m ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng cho vi\u1ec7c chi ti\u00eau. R\u1ed3i th\u00ec l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u1edf kh\u1eafp n\u01a1i. V\u00ec v\u1eady, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00fac c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, b\u1edfi v\u00ec vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn \u201cl\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt\u201d.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 th\u1edf ph\u00e0o nh\u1eb9 nh\u00f5m, trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 thu h\u1eb9p t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n trong b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng trong khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f2n qu\u00e1 y\u1ebfu s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm lai, x\u00ec h\u01a1i bong b\u00f3ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n. Vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean qu\u00e1 cao c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi. C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1eed dung \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng do chi\u1ebfn tranh. Trung Qu\u1ed1c m\u1ed9t m\u0103t ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi gi\u00e1n c\u00e1ch x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i do \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch m\u0103t kh\u00e1c ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n. Vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n lu\u1ed3ng v\u1ed1n t\u1eeb n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i v\u00e0o M\u1ef9, \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng n\u1ee3 n\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngh\u00e8o t\u0103ng l\u00ean. T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u00e0 b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc v\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f3 bi\u1ebft tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 n\u1ed7i lo l\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi n\u00e0y ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2u khi m\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 c\u1ee9 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng cho t\u1edbi khi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f3 k\u00e9o xu\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 mong \u0111\u1ee3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khi chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u0103ng do \u0111\u1ee9t g\u00e3y chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng, s\u1ef1 leo thang gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c do chi\u1ebfn tranh. Ch\u1ea5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u01b0a h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c l\u1ea1i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u1ea5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1edbi v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

Quay l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u trong m\u00f4n kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc vi m\u00f4 m\u00e0 sinh vi\u00ean kinh t\u1ebf n\u0103m th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ea1y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap ch\u00fang ta nh\u1eadn ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ri\u00eang l\u1ebb nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i c\u1ee7a to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp ni\u00ean qua kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p g\u00ec v\u00e0o d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch hay gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i. V\u00ec v\u1eady, kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 l\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p. \u0110\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean b\u00ecnh di\u1ec7n to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i tr\u1eebu t\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00f3a qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u. Trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u0169ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn trung th\u00e0nh v\u1edbi c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a J.M. Keynes, h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4, th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 h\u00e0nh vi duy l\u00fd, nghi ng\u1edd ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh t\u1ef1 do. Ng\u00e0y nay nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ea5y c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 Hyman Minsky v\u00e0 Charles Kindleberger, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u0129 v\u1ec1 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 Ray Dalio, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf qua kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4 khi h\u1ecd \u0111\u01b0a ra l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 t\u1ed5ng n\u1ee3 v\u00e0 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. Nh\u1eefng nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc h\u00e0nh vi cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a ki\u1ec3u m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf thu\u1ed9c ph\u00e1i t\u00e2n c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u00e0 t\u00e2n Keynes theo \u0111u\u1ed5i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh k\u00e9m \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh chi ti\u00eau th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc v\u0129 m\u00f4 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee9a con c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc. Tr\u1eeb khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc nh\u1eadn ra s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ngay c\u1ea3 khi ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c nh\u1eefng cam k\u1ebft th\u1ef1c thi trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng. Nh\u01b0ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u1eabn b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc b\u1edfi l\u1ebd h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7, ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1edfi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n c\u1ed1 \u0111inh khi ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra. Ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 theo \u0111\u00fang ngh\u0129a m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p. M\u1ed9t khi ch\u00fang ta th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf vi m\u00f4 g\u1eafn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1i \u01b0u. N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 con ng\u01b0\u1eddi lu\u00f4n \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd ch\u1ecbu s\u1ef1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1edfi y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd. C\u00e1c l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean xu h\u01b0\u1edbng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u1edf n\u00ean qu\u00e1 tham lam v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i c\u00f3 v\u1ebb hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u duy nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho th\u1ea5y m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u1ecdc ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean (DSGE) \u2013 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi l\u1edbn trong l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 trong h\u01a1n 40 n\u0103m qua – cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n h\u1eefu \u00edch cho b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec kh\u00e1c ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n nhi\u1ec1u b\u00e0i b\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng cho l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Daniel Kahneman v\u00e0 Amos Tversky c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng trong t\u1eebng b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thay cho c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u1ecdc ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean (DSGE) l\u00e2u nay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef chung cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i.C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y gi\u00fap \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i bong b\u00f3ng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u1ea1i r\u1ea5t ch\u1eadm ch\u1ea1p trong vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng khi bong b\u00f3ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m ph\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng Quang H\u00f9ng, ng\u00e0y 15\/10\/2022<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tr\u01b0\u01a1ng Quang H\u00f9ng Khi \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u0103m 2008-2009 v\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf k\u00e9o d\u00e0i sau \u0111\u00f3, Hoa k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 phi ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng, m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE).","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7705,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[515,107],"tags":[],"acf":[],"lang":"vi","translations":{"vi":8856},"pll_sync_post":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8856"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8856"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8856\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8863,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8856\/revisions\/8863"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}