{"id":8776,"date":"2010-06-15T06:37:50","date_gmt":"2010-06-14T23:37:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/?p=8776"},"modified":"2022-07-19T10:09:05","modified_gmt":"2022-07-19T03:09:05","slug":"huong-dan-doc-mankiw-nguyen-hoai-bao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/vi\/huong-dan-doc-mankiw-nguyen-hoai-bao\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ecdc Mankiw (Nguy\u1ec5n Ho\u00e0i B\u1ea3o)"},"content":{"rendered":"

H\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ecdc Mankiw<\/h2>\n

Nguy\u1ec5n Ho\u00e0i B\u1ea3o<\/p>\n

B\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean: 12\/9\/2007; B\u1ea3n c\u00f3 c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt: 15\/6\/2010<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gregory Mankiw b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u vi\u1ebft quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa \u201cMacroeconomics\u201d1<\/sup> v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1988 khi \u00f4ng 29 tu\u1ed5i v\u00e0 l\u00fac \u1ea5y \u00f4ng c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 tr\u1ebb tu\u1ed5i nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Harvard, n\u01a1i \u00f4ng l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c cho \u0111\u1ebfn b\u00e2y gi\u1edd. Nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n Worth \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n quy\u1ec3n Macroeconomics v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1992 v\u00e0 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ebfn nay \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1i b\u1ea3n l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 7 v\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng 10 quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 trung c\u1ea5p b\u00e1n ch\u1ea1y nh\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch c\u00f3 k\u1ebft c\u1ea5u r\u1ea5t ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd. \u00d4ng xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t \u0111i\u1ec3m \u1edf d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n r\u1ed3i sau \u0111\u00f3 m\u1edbi quay v\u1ec1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u00f4ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a Keynes – nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tin r\u1eb1ng cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta l\u00e0 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, \u201ctrong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ebft\u201d. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 quy\u1ec3n \u201cEconomics: Introductory Analysis\u201d kinh \u0111i\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a Paul A. Samuelson.<\/p>\n

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1<\/sup> C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tham kh\u1ea3o \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y: http:\/\/www.economics.harvard.edu\/faculty\/mankiw\/books_mankiw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4n khoa h\u1ecdc x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng suy ngh\u0129 tr\u1eebu t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eb1m l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng kinh t\u1ebf xung quanh ch\u00fang ta, n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch vi m\u00f4 ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn, nh\u01b0 h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh, doanh nghi\u1ec7p, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u0129 m\u00f4. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, c\u00f3 hai m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n. Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t <\/em>l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf lu\u00f4n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng theo th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 n\u00ean l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00f3; th\u1ee9 hai <\/em>l\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf theo th\u1eddi gian. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi h\u1ecdc kinh t\u1ebf c\u0169ng \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a m\u00f4n kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00f4i l\u00fac \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1eb7t cho m\u00ecnh nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 l\u00e0m cho ch\u00fang xa r\u1eddi v\u1edbi \u0111\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed qu\u00e1 b\u00ed \u1ea9n. M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khung th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e2n t\u00edch. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi khung th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u00e0 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n<\/em>, d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n <\/em>v\u00e0 r\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n <\/em>(ho\u1eb7c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, trung h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n). Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i m\u00e0 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng nh\u1eefng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. S\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n \u0111\u1ecbnh ranh gi\u1edbi gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c khung th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a m\u00f4n h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n

S\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Mankiw vi\u1ebft \u1edf tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9 trung c\u1ea5p, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 to\u00e1n ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, song n\u00f3 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 d\u1ec5 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecdc m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e3o! C\u0169ng nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng t\u00f3m t\u1eaft mang t\u00ednh n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kinh t\u1ebf g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn. N\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 g\u1ed9p. Mankiw c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i ph\u1ea1m vi \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 khung th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o. S\u1ef1 t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t trong vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf, n\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c (real variables) v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 danh ngh\u0129a (nominal variables) v\u00e0 c\u0169ng t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e2y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf. Mankiw \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ed1 c\u1ee5c quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh kh\u00e1 c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng cho hai tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u00e2n c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n (neo-classical school) \u1edf ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i theo Keynes (keynesian school) \u1edf ph\u1ea7n sau c\u1ee7a s\u00e1ch. Tuy v\u1eady, n\u1ebfu ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecdc kh\u00f4ng n\u1eafm v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i ch\u00fang l\u1ea1i th\u00ec qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c l\u00e0 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4. M\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady cho nh\u1eefng sinh vi\u00ean m\u1edbi h\u1ecdc! B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y s\u1ebd d\u1eabn d\u1eaft nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i quan tr\u1ecdng trong quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Mankiw (v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng logic c\u1ee7a khoa h\u1ecdc kinh t\u1ebf) \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecdc c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn t\u1ed5ng quan nhanh h\u01a1n. N\u1ebfu l\u00e0 cu\u1ed1n ti\u1ec3u thuy\u1ebft, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ecdc t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i, n\u1ebfu l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u1eadp th\u01a1, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ecdc t\u1eebng b\u00e0i \u1edf b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 ch\u1ed7 n\u00e0o. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu l\u00e0 s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Mankiw, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb \u1edf ch\u00ednh gi\u1eefa!<\/p>\n

\u1ede ch\u00ednh gi\u1eefa s\u00e1ch c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 Mankiw c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trung gian gi\u1eefa ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n trong ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u1edf ph\u1ea7n sau cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n <\/em>(classical dichotomy). Patinkin s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef n\u00e0y v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1956 \u0111\u1ec3 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn danh ngh\u0129a trong l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft. Bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c l\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p hay GDP th\u1ef1c l\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a c\u1ee7a l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u01a1i gian, ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 ngh\u1ec9 ng\u01a1i, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. Bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 danh ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3, ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng trong b\u1ea3n h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i \u0111ang ni\u00eam y\u1ebft \u1edf ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ebfn trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf\u2026<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u00e2n c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n ch\u1ec9 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 danh ngh\u0129a kh\u00f4ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. Th\u1eadm ch\u00ed ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n trong \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ee9 n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m ch\u00fang ta gi\u00e0u c\u00f3 hay ngh\u00e8o \u0111i. \u1ede kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 t\u00ednh trung l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n <\/em>(the neutrality of money). Tuy nhi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ai c\u0169ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn n\u00e0y, Keynes l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean cho r\u1eb1ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 v\u00ec v\u1eady d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi gi\u1eefa bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 danh ngh\u0129a. \u1ede ch\u1eebng m\u1ef1c n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, gi\u1eefa h\u1ecd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ed chung r\u1eb1ng, s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n ch\u1ee9 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng. Mankiw c\u0169ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y v\u00e0 k\u1ebft c\u1ea5u s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u1edf ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n sau c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 danh ngh\u0129a. \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd \u00f4n t\u1eadp l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 Mankiw \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft ch\u00fang tra trong quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, c\u1ea7n nh\u1edb c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 khung th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e2n t\u00edch. Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (short-run), l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh <\/em>r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 l\u00e0 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc (sticky). Gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111u\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u \u1edf ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, bao g\u1ed3m gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1, ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1eabn ti\u1ec1n thu\u00ea v\u1ed1n. V\u00ec gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 l\u00e0 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc n\u00ean c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c (v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng) s\u1ebd \u00edt khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. Ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u0169ng g\u1eafn li\u1ec1n v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00ec c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u201cm\u1ed9t s\u1edbm m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u\u201d th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 ph\u00e1t minh ho\u1eb7c h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 ngay. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ebfu ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u1edf khung th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (long-run) th\u00ec gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, hay n\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 s\u1ebd linh ho\u1ea1t (flexible). Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t n\u00e0y n\u00ean c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00fang \u1edf m\u1ee9c ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u00e0 v\u00ec th\u1ebf s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng<\/em>. Trong khung th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e2n t\u00edch r\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (very long-run), ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 linh ho\u1ea1t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n th\u00ec c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 c\u0169ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 trong r\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh nh\u1edd gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf m\u1ed9t logic cho ph\u00e2n t\u00edch nh\u1eefng c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4. Khi quan s\u00e1t s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi theo th\u1eddi gian, ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 Dubai Palace casino thể thao, casino, slot game, bắn cá, xổ số (business cycle). T\u1ea1i sao l\u00e0 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady v\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m g\u00ec l\u00e0 c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc v\u0129 m\u00f4 b\u1eadn t\u00e2m l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i t\u1eeb m\u1ea5y th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 qua nh\u01b0ng c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd k\u1ebft th\u00fac m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch tr\u1ecdn v\u1eb9n.<\/p>\n

Thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc lu\u00f4n theo m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i l\u00ean, n\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao th\u00ec \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00e0ng cao. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb thu nh\u1eadp t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 n\u1eb1m tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng <\/em>(potential output) hay l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean (natural ouput). N\u1ebfu s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng th\u00ec n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i.<\/p>\n

S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf hay l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u1ed1i \u0111a m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e0 v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh\u00a0(Samuelson, 2002). Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng n\u00e0y kh\u00e1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 tri\u1ebft l\u00fd l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kh\u00e1 s\u00e2u s\u1eafc. \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y th\u00ec th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 hai y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng. S\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u1edf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean <\/em>(the natural rate of interest) v\u00e0 to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng <\/em>(full employment) trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

Knut Wicksell l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1898 trong quy\u1ec3n L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 Gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 <\/em>c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, tuy nhi\u00ean \u00f4ng c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean n\u00e0y theo nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c nhau: (1) \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0; (2) l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m bi\u00ean c\u1ee7a v\u1ed1n; (3) l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u00e0 \u1edf \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf (Amto, 2005). Wicksell kh\u00f4ng cho bi\u1ebft m\u1ed1i li\u00ean quan c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a tr\u00ean, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 c\u0169ng cho ch\u00fang ta hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng v\u00e0 trong khung th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n; \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng khi n\u00e0o c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a v\u1ed1n.2<\/sup> L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a Mankiw c\u0169ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0y, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch chi ti\u1ebft. N\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00fd hi\u1ec7u l\u00e0 r v\u00e0 g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c (real interest rate).<\/p>\n

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2<\/sup> G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, Woodford (2003) \u0111\u00e3 cho m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a kh\u00e1c v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u01b0 nhi\u00ean, theo \u00f4ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu n c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u1ef1 c (the equilibrium real rate of return) trong m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 l\u00e0 linh ho\u1ea1t. \u00d0\u00f3ng g\u00f3p n\u00e0y c\u0169ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u0103n b\u1ea3n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 th\u1ef1c nghi m. \u00d0\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, Woodford th\u00ec \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u linh ho\u1ea1t trong khi \u0111\u00f3 Wicksell \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1n t (Beenstock v\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng s\u1ef1, 2005).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

To\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef c\u1ee7a Keynes, n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eb1m trong l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c. Kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf (th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng) nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. Lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 v\u00ec t\u1ea1i b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o c\u0169ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u1eeba m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c ho\u1eb7c b\u1ecf vi\u1ec7c v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c th\u00ec v\u1eeba c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p n\u00e0y g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u1edf m\u1ee9c to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng (full-employment unemployment rate).<\/p>\n

N\u0103m 1958, A.W. Phillips d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a Anh trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 1861-1957 \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn l\u00e0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng danh ngh\u0129a m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n \u2013 m\u00e0 b\u00e2y gi\u1edd ch\u00fang ta g\u1ecdi t\u1eafc l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong Phillips.3<\/sup> K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i c\u1ee7a Keynes, h\u1ecd tin t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Nh\u01b0ng th\u1eadt tr\u1edb tr\u00eau, m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u00fang n\u1eefa trong th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 70 (xem h\u00ecnh) v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fac nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ed1ng Keynes ra m\u1eb7t. Milton Friedman \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng \u201cwe\u00a0are all keynesian\u201d (t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ec1u theo Keynes) nh\u01b0ng r\u1ed3i ch\u00ednh \u00f4ng l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra \u0111i tru\u1edbc ti\u00ean.<\/p>\n

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3<\/sup> Sau \u0111\u00f3 Samuelson v\u00e0 Solow c\u00f3 c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng k\u1ebft lu n nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd ki\u1ec3m ch\u1ee9ng m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ngh\u1ecbch bi\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa t\u1ef7 l l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l th\u1ea5t nghi p c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 1900-1960.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Friedman \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n b\u00e1c l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i Keynes (v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong Phillips kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u00fang n\u1eefa) b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0a c\u00e1c \u00fd ni\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u00edch nghi v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, chuy\u1ec7n g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra khi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng cung ti\u1ec1n th\u00eam 5 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. C\u00f3 hai t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra. Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng danh ngh\u0129a v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng l\u00ean 5 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng th\u00eam \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u1ec1 g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong khi gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Trong t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 trung l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u00fd ngh\u0129a. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu, c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p bi\u1ebft <\/em>\u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 h\u1ecd k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean 5 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m, th\u00ec h\u1ecd c\u0169ng s\u1ebd \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 th\u00eam 5 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u ngh\u0129 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady th\u00ec n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd chi ti\u00eau v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng l\u00ean nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ea7u. Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee9 th\u1ebf n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng kh\u1ed1i ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh. Friedman cho r\u1eb1ng, thay v\u00ec theo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, th\u00ec ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng n\u00ean c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 mi\u1ec5n sao cho \u0111\u1eebng l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc g\u1ecdi \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 NAIRU – t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment). T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n tr\u00ean Friedman g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean <\/em>(the natural rate of unemployment). Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p m\u00e0 \u1edf \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 Mankiw, c\u00e1c s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng d\u00e0nh nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t hai t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p tr\u00ean v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u khi hi\u1ec3u ch\u00fang l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ec c\u1ea3 hai c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean.<\/p>\n

[D\u00e0i h\u1ea1n] Trong ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a s\u00e1ch Mankiw, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta v\u1eeba n\u00f3i \u1edf tr\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i gi\u1eefa s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (ph\u00eda cung) v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u) ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0 c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i g\u1eefa ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 then ch\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u00e0y l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c n\u1ebfu ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00f3ng ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i n\u1ebfu l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edf.4<\/sup> \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n n\u1ed9i dung c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi cho 2 c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i \u1edf tr\u00ean. R\u1ea5t \u00edt khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng n\u00e0y. Ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n. Tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 c\u1ed9t m\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi t\u1ea1i sao s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf trong r\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. C\u0169ng n\u00ean l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng, cho d\u00f9 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (s\u1ebd n\u00f3i r\u00f5 \u1edf d\u01b0\u1edbi) kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng nh\u01b0ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 h\u00e0nh vi gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m\u2026\u0111\u1ec1u di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0ng trong tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

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4<\/sup> Nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t th\u1ee9c c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i nh\u1edb c\u1ee7a ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0y l\u00e0: [1] \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00f3ng: Y<\/em>\u00af<\/em>= C(Y<\/em>\u00af<\/em>-T) + G + I(r) v\u00e0 S<\/em>\u00af<\/em>= I(r); [2] \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edf: Y\u00af <\/em>= C(Y\u00af<\/em>-T) + G + I(r*) + NX(\u03b5) v\u00e0 S<\/em>\u00af<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>-I(r*) = NX(\u03b5).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

[R\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n] L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng n\u00e0y t\u0103ng l\u00ean theo th\u1eddi gian th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Robert Solow. Th\u1ef1c ra ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 Solow kh\u00f4ng th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi tr\u1ecdn v\u1eb9n c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi n\u00e0y, c\u00f2n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c b\u1ed5 sung cho nhau \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf theo th\u1eddi gian.5<\/sup> M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Solow ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh \u0111i\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i t\u00e2n c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n. K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 t\u1ea1o ra hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng m\u1ee9c ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o ra hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng su\u1ea5t trong t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. Ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m thu nh\u1eadp b\u00ecnh tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u0103ng l\u00ean (t\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eebng c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1ed1n th\u1ea5p l\u00ean m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eebng m\u1edbi c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1ed1n cao h\u01a1n) nh\u01b0ng qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u1ea5y ch\u1ec9 di\u1ec5n ra m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 ti\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch li\u00ean t\u1ee5c), th\u00ec t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng thu nh\u1eadp b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd t\u0103ng theo th\u1eddi gian (m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch li\u00ean t\u1ee5c).<\/p>\n

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5<\/sup> Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Daron Acemoglu \u1edf MIT v\u1eeba cho l\u00ean trang web c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng b\u1ea3n th\u1ea3o quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf r\u1ea5t h\u1eefu \u00edch. C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tham kh\u1ea3o t\u1ea1i: http:\/\/econ-www.mit.edu\/faculty\/acemoglu\/books<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng, k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khi tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00fang c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Solow. Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tr\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n l\u00e0 h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p (representative household v\u00e0 representative firm). H\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 (cho tr\u01b0\u1edbc) v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n qua h\u00e0m s\u1ea3n su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i theo qui m\u00f4 (constant returns to scale)<\/em>. Hai y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u1ee7a h\u00e0m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00e0 v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1u tu\u00e2n theo qui lu\u1eadt s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m bi\u00ean t\u0103ng v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n (positive and disminishing marginal products)<\/em>. Th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a hai y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ea1t tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng.6<\/sup> Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u0111a ho\u00e1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n

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\u00a06<\/sup> Nh\u1edb l\u1ea1i, \u0111\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a khung th\u1eddi gian r\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

V\u1edbi c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u00e0 \u1ed5 \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1ed1n trang b\u1ecb cho m\u1ed7i c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n theo th\u1eddi gian.7<\/sup> Tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i d\u1eebng (steady state). T\u1eeb tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i d\u1eebng, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n s\u1ed1, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Solow cho ra c\u00e1c k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

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7<\/sup> \u00d0i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng (hay t\u1ea1i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i d\u1eebng) c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i nh\u1edb c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Solow khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 c\u00f3 t\u0103ng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 l\u00e0: \u2206k = sf(k)-(\u03b4 +n+g)k = 0.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

[Ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n] Ph\u1ea7n g\u1ea7n cu\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch, Mankiw ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u0111ang ch\u1ec7ch ra kh\u1ecfi v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u00e2n c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng chu k\u1ef3 Dubai Palace casino thể thao, casino, slot game, bắn cá, xổ số c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 g\u1ee3i \u00fd ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh.<\/p>\n

S\u1ea3n lu\u1ee3ng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi s\u1ea3n lu\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. M\u1ed9t khi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u00e0y th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng th\u00ec n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy tho\u00e1i (recession) ho\u1eb7c cao h\u01a1n s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng th\u00ec n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 (boom). Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng, c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf cho r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea1i b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u0169ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ed1n nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tr\u1eef lu\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khai th\u00e1c h\u1ebft ho\u1eb7c qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c \u201ct\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean\u201d c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n lu\u01a1ng l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng linh ho\u1ea1t hay c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc n\u00ean c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

B\u1edfi v\u00ec trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n kh\u00f4ng di\u1ec5n ra n\u00ean c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn danh ngh\u0129a v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn th\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi. C\u00f3 ba th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n quan t\u00e2m v\u00e0 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u1ef1 li\u00ean h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa ch\u00fang l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0m ra c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng b\u00e1n h\u1ebft v\u00ec h\u1ecd d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n sai nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u1ea3i t\u1ef1 m\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 t\u00ean g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 IS-LM.8<\/sup> M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00fang ta ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi tr\u00ean c\u1ea3 hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1, m\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, \u1edf m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00ec \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ecb tru\u1eddng. C\u0169ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0y, gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng v\u00e0 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 th\u00ec t\u1ed5ng cung d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. C\u00e1ch c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ecd x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed5ng cung. Nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc quan tr\u1ecdng khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tru\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 ph\u00eda cung quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u. M\u1ed9t khi c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (s\u1ed1 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng thu\u00ea m\u01b0\u1edbn) ho\u1eb7c gi\u00e1 (ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng) sao cho t\u1ed1i \u0111a ho\u00e1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn. C\u1ea3 ph\u00eda doanh nghi\u1ec7p l\u1eabn ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m c\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c (real wage) ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng danh ngh\u0129a.<\/p>\n

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8<\/sup> Vi\u1ebft t\u1eaft t\u1eeb c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p t\u1eeb: Investment\/Saving \u2013 Liquidity\/Money. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1edfi nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc John Hick n\u0103m 1937.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

C\u00f3 b\u1ed1n c\u00e1ch l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 b\u1ed1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed5ng cung. Hai c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea7u d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 hai c\u00e1ch sau d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u00e0 do ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc (sticky- wage). Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf gi\u1eefa ph\u00eda ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m c\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng (danh ngh\u0129a) c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh th\u00f4ng qua h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec th\u1ebf, trong su\u1ed1t th\u1eddi gian h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng di\u1ec5n ra, cho d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u00f3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o (\u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c) th\u00ec ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng k\u1ebft th\u00fac.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng do s\u1ef1 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n (worker-misperception) gi\u1eefa bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 danh ngh\u0129a. Cho d\u00f9 l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng danh ngh\u0129a c\u00f3 linh ho\u1ea1t \u0111i ch\u0103ng n\u1eefa, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f4i khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m thu\u00ea kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebft gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00e0 v\u00ec th\u1ebf h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng sai l\u1ea7m. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, ph\u00eda doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng danh ngh\u0129a l\u00ean trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao, song ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ea1i c\u1ee9 hi\u1ec3u l\u00e0m r\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd t\u0103ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c nh\u00e2n d\u1ee5ng cao h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u0169ng h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng, n\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c sai l\u1ea7m nh\u01b0 \u1edf tr\u00ean th\u00ec nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u00f4i khi c\u0169ng sai l\u1ea7m. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0y ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u00f4ng tin kh\u00f4ng ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o (imperfect information). C\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ebft gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t. \u0110\u00f4i khi gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 chung t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u1ee9 t\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m m\u00ecnh b\u00e1n l\u00e0 t\u0103ng l\u00ean v\u00e0 v\u00ec th\u1ebf h\u1ecd cung c\u1ea5p nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n ra th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch m\u00e0 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc (sticky-price). Gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u0111\u00f4i khi c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i b\u1edfi c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng cung c\u1ea5p d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n ho\u1eb7c c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng. \u0110i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y l\u00e0 trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p gi\u1eef cho gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f2n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c th\u00ec \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u1ea1nh tranh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u1ea5n \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 m\u00e0 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p kh\u00e1c m\u00e0 m\u00ecnh k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ecd \u1ea5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. V\u1edbi gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u0169ng t\u1ea1o ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Cho d\u00f9 l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0o \u0111i ch\u0103ng n\u1eefa. Nh\u1eefng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 t\u1ed5ng cung \u0111\u1ec1u cho bi\u1ebft m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, m\u1edbi quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 \u00e2m.9<\/sup> M\u1ed9t khi gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng b\u1eb1ng nhau th\u00ec l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, hay n\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 \u0111ang ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u1edf tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

\n

9<\/sup> Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh c\u0103n b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5ng cung c\u1ea7n nh\u1edb l\u00e0 Y = Yp<\/sub> + \u03b1(P-Pe<\/sup>)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa t\u1ed5ng cung v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd gi\u00fap ch\u00fang ta l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng theo th\u1eddi gian c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u1edf ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch s\u1ebd ch\u1ee9ng minh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n \u0111\u00f4i c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n

T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o<\/strong><\/p>\n