{"id":8147,"date":"2021-11-25T21:41:04","date_gmt":"2021-11-25T14:41:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/?p=8147"},"modified":"2022-06-17T05:44:33","modified_gmt":"2022-06-16T22:44:33","slug":"bong-bong-gia-tai-san-lan-nay-thi-khac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/vi\/bong-bong-gia-tai-san-lan-nay-thi-khac\/","title":{"rendered":"Bong b\u00f3ng gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 “L\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c”"},"content":{"rendered":"

BONG B\u00d3NG GI\u00c1 T\u00c0I S\u1ea2N V\u00c0 \u201cL\u1ea6N N\u00c0Y TH\u00cc KH\u00c1C\u201d<\/h2>\n

Ch\u00e2u V\u0103n Th\u00e0nh<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3ng vi\u00ean Khoa Kinh t\u1ebf, Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Kinh t\u1ebf, Lu\u1eadt v\u00e0 Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Dubai Palace<\/p>\n

T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u d\u00f9ng cho gi\u1ea3ng d\u1ea1y v\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u. Ng\u00e0y 25\/11\/2021.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

H\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp ni\u00ean k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb sau cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u 2008 (GFC) k\u00e9o theo cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf r\u1ea5t s\u00e2u, kh\u1eafp n\u01a1i tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn c\u00e1c g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 c\u1ea3 d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c g\u00f3i n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE). N\u1ebfu b\u1ecf qua hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2021, h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 cung ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh th\u1eddi gian qua \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng song h\u00e0nh v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/em> t\u0103ng l\u00ean. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n<\/em> l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t. N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i sau g\u1ea7n 2 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch \u2013 nh\u01b0ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u00ec lu\u00f4n duy tr\u00ec \u201cphong \u0111\u1ed9\u201d th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gia t\u0103ng b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng<\/em>. \u1ede Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7, li\u00ean t\u1ee5c trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u00fang ta d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng b\u1eaft g\u1eb7p c\u00e1c t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 n\u00e0y, nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 \u201cD\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n v\u00e0o ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng t\u0103ng ch\u1eadm, ti\u1ec1n \u0111ang \u201cch\u1ea3y\u201d \u0111i \u0111\u00e2u<\/a>?<\/em>\u201d<\/em> Hay \u201cD\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u201cb\u01a1m c\u0103ng\u201d th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e2u?<\/a><\/em>\u201d \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra nghi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng c\u1ee7a Milton Friedman \u201cL\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u00ec lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 n\u01a1i \u0111\u00e2u \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7<\/em>\u201d (Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon).<\/p>\n

M\u1eb7c kh\u00e1c, c\u0169ng \u0111ang c\u00f3 nghi v\u1ea5n v\u1ec1 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c g\u00f3i k\u00edch th\u00edch \u201cn\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng\u201d c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch k\u00edch c\u1ea7u \u1edf h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u2013 gi\u00e0u v\u00e0 ngh\u00e8o h\u01a1n \u2013 l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh m\u1edbi. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ec7, nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t l\u1eddi tr\u1ea5n an mang t\u00ean \u201cL\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d<\/em> l\u1ea1i xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n. \u0110\u1ee9ng tr\u00ean g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc v\u0129 m\u00f4, n\u1ebfu b\u1ecf qua hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u b\u00f9ng l\u00ean th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y v\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n kh\u00e1c (xem b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft \u201cCOVID-19 V\u00c0 NGUY C\u01a0 L\u1ea0M PH\u00c1T QUAY TR\u1ede L\u1ea0I<\/a>\u201d th\u00e1ng 8\/2021 c\u1ee7a Ch\u00e2u V\u0103n Th\u00e0nh), c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 \u201cT\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c g\u00f3i b\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0 k\u00edch th\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c<\/em> \u2013 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 – nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/em>? (\u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 cho \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2021)\u201d. C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi n\u00e0y g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n cho b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh c\u1ee7a giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2009-2020. Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft g\u00ec \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0o hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y? Li\u1ec7u r\u1eb1ng Milton Friedman v\u00e0 Thuy\u1ebft S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ti\u1ec1n c\u00f3 b\u1ecb sai? Li\u1ec7u r\u1eb1ng \u201cL\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d c\u00f3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00fang?<\/em><\/p>\n

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\u201cL\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d l\u00e0 t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch b\u00e1n ch\u1ea1y nh\u1ea5t \u201cThis Time is Different\u201d c\u1ee7a hai gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) Carmen Reinhart v\u00e0 Ken Rogoff.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng th\u1ef1c nghi\u1ec7m<\/h3>\n

C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Anh v\u00e0 Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh. B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y, gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2009 \u0111\u1ebfn 2019, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Anh \u0111\u00e3 b\u01a1m 425 t\u1ef7 b\u1ea3ng (# 588 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la) t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 22,5% GDP c\u1ee7a Anh n\u0103m 2012 v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. Theo \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh, g\u00f3i b\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u1edf m\u1ee9c 1,1% n\u0103m 2009 c\u1ee7a Anh sau \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u00ean m\u1ee9c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau trung h\u1ea1n 2%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 sau h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp ni\u00ean \u201cn\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, QE\u201d l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf Anh v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c c\u00f2n th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 m\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2009, v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP ch\u01b0a h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u1ec1n kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 v\u00e0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c trong c\u00f9ng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 3\/2021, BOE \u0111\u00e3 b\u01a1m th\u00eam 450 t\u1ef7 b\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng mua l\u1ea1i tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Anh, \u0111\u01b0a t\u1ed5ng g\u00f3i ti\u1ec1n b\u01a1m v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 875 t\u1ef7 b\u1ea3ng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 40% GDP hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh. T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a g\u00f3i QE l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u1ea1i b\u00f9ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 \u1edf Anh \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 10,2% trong n\u0103m cho \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 3\/2021, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 8\/2007.<\/p>\n

Hoa k\u1ef3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c g\u00f3i k\u00edch th\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 QE v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn. Ngay sau GFC, Hoa K\u1ef3 tung ngay c\u00e1c g\u00f3i QE l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0n t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a. Ti\u1ebfp theo \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 2 n\u0103m di\u1ec5n ra \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19, c\u00e1c g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 v\u00e0 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u01a1m v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn h\u00e0ng th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi n\u00e0y. Theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 \u1edf Hoa<\/p>\n

K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ee9c 19,7% n\u0103m 2020 v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng n\u0103m 2021, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed \u0111ang ph\u00e1t ra \u201ct\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ecf\u201d. H\u00ecnh 1 cho th\u1ea5y, gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3 gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u sau GFC 2008, nh\u01b0ng v\u1ee5t l\u00ean nhanh ch\u00f3ng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ngay sau \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p chi ph\u00ed x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

H\u00ecnh 1. Gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u0129 m\u00f4 qua c\u00e1c th\u1eadp ni\u00ean.<\/h4>\n

\"\"Ngu\u1ed3n: Robert J. Shiller (2021)<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u1edf h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb sau GFC 2008 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t cho \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2020, th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ua nhau th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p b\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n mang t\u00ean \u201cn\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng\u201d (Quantitative Easing, QE) nh\u01b0ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n. H\u00e3y b\u1ecf qua d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y. C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e2u<\/em>?<\/p>\n

Theo d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a OECD Economic Outlook ng\u00e0y 22\/09\/2021, GDP to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u1edd m\u1ee9c 5,7% v\u00e0 4,5% l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t n\u0103m 2021 v\u00e0 2022. C\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 ph\u00f3ng ban \u0111\u1ea7u tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. D\u00f9 cho t\u1ed5ng GDP to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee9c GDP th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch (2019) nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 3,5 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 GDP d\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ban \u0111\u1ea7u tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi x\u1ea3y ra COVID-19. C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn \u0111ang h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i s\u00e2u n\u0103m 2020. Nh\u01b0ng h\u1ed1 c\u00e1ch l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m v\u1eabn c\u00f2n \u0111\u00f3 \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i (Emerging-Market & Developing Economies – EMDEs).<\/p>\n

L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00f3i g\u00ec v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c g\u00f3i QE v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n?<\/h3>\n

Quay l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc (economics) ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 Thuy\u1ebft S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ti\u1ec1n. Theo Milton Friedman, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u00ec lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 n\u01a1i \u0111\u00e2u \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. Nh\u01b0ng c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 v\u1edbi r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u g\u00f3i QE \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tung ra nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u1edf th\u1eadp ni\u00ean qua, nh\u01b0ng t\u1ea1i sao l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng l\u00ean (\u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 cho \u0111\u1ebfn 2020)? Nhi\u1ec1u nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng th\u1ef1c nghi\u1ec7m cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n ti\u1ec1n c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef t\u0103ng l\u00ean v\u00e0 v\u00f2ng quay ti\u1ec1n th\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e3 k\u00e9o theo t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa kh\u1ed1i ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 kh\u00f4ng gia t\u0103ng c\u00f9ng chi\u1ec1u nh\u01b0 Thuy\u1ebft S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ti\u1ec1n m\u00f4 t\u1ea3.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng d\u00f9 cho Milton Friedman v\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cung ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 c\u00f2n \u0111\u00fang hay kh\u00f4ng th\u00ec m\u1ed9t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e0 c\u00e1c g\u00f3i n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng QE c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111ang ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh r\u1ee7i ro t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5<\/em> (boom-and-bust cycles) v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh<\/em> do ch\u00ednh ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 t\u1ea1o ra. V\u00ec sao v\u1eady? B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho th\u1ea5y, ti\u1ec1n \u0111ang c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o khu v\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111ang b\u00f9ng l\u00ean \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u n\u01a1i. \u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i v\u00ec sao kh\u1ed1i ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Thuy\u1ebft S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec th\u1ebf m\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn xoay quanh vi\u1ec7c khi n\u00e0o v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac\/\u0111\u1ea3o ngh\u1ecbch \u201cn\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng\u201d v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd c\u00e1c quy \u0111\u1ecbnh an to\u00e0n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang g\u00e1nh ch\u1ecbu qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1eeb tr\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19 ho\u00e0nh h\u00e0nh.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Robert Skidelsky (gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Kinh t\u1ebf Ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb thu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Warwick) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi r\u1eb1ng: \u201cT\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c g\u00f3i mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Hoa K\u1ef3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2009 l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 \u00edt t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 chung c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 v\u1eady?<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Robert Skidelsky, d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 ph\u1ea7n nh\u1ecf c\u1ee7a l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c g\u00f3i QE n\u00e0y ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o khu v\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u00e0m b\u00f9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u00e0y v\u00e0 mang l\u1ea1i ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ch\u00fang. M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i (wealth effect) gia t\u0103ng k\u00e9o theo c\u0169ng k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t khu v\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u1ea1i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c lu\u00e2n chuy\u1ec3n trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. C\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt cho l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn n\u00e0y l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/p>\n

Keynes v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n di chuy\u1ec3n<\/h4>\n

Nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft, Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc v\u0129 m\u00f4 ra \u0111\u1eddi t\u1eeb \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a John Maynard Keynes nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u00ean b\u00ecnh di\u1ec7n t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 tr\u1edf n\u00ean th\u1ecbnh h\u00e0nh t\u1eeb sau th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1940. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo Keynes \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh, \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng trong quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng General Theory<\/em> c\u1ee7a John Maynard Keynes th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn cho gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a trong k\u00edch c\u1ea7u kinh t\u1ebf. Theo \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ee3t suy gi\u1ea3m hay s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf – v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 g\u00ec \u0111i n\u1eefa, th\u00ec \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t (cash) s\u1ebd c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gia t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. C\u00e1c d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n (money) chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0o trong d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef (reserves), ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m t\u0103ng l\u00ean v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau gi\u1ea3m \u0111i. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i l\u00fd do v\u00ec sao Keynes v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch k\u00edch c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch v\u1ec1 h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a. \u00d4ng l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf suy gi\u1ea3m, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a (ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7) n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1ec3 k\u00edch th\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u201cng\u01b0\u1eddi chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee9u c\u00e1nh cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng\u201d<\/em> (spender of last resort) nh\u1eb1m b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi (new money) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t thay v\u00ec b\u1ecb gi\u1eef l\u1ea1i trong d\u00e2n ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, trong t\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m Kh\u00e1i lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (A Treatise on Money<\/em>), Keynes c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn \u201cc\u1ea7u ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1\u201d<\/em> (speculative demand for money) b\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u201cc\u1ea7u ti\u1ec1n cho giao d\u1ecbch\u201d mua b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 (transaction motive demand for money). Theo gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Robert Skidelsky, Keynes cho r\u1eb1ng trong su\u1ed1t th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 suy gi\u1ea3m kinh t\u1ebf s\u00e2u (depression), ti\u1ec1n (money) kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft l\u00e0 b\u1ecb gi\u1eef l\u1ea1i, m\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y ch\u1ea3y t\u1eeb chu chuy\u1ec3n \u201cc\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p\u201d<\/em> (industrial circulation) sang chu chuy\u1ec3n \u201ct\u00e0i ch\u00ednh\u201d<\/em> (financial circulation).<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf, ti\u1ec1n trong chu chuy\u1ec3n c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00e0m \u00fd n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho c\u00e1c ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5) \u0111\u1ea7u ra th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng; trong khi \u0111\u00f3, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n trong chu chuy\u1ec3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng cho \u201cvi\u1ec7c Dubai Palace casino thể thao, casino, slot game, bắn cá, xổ số n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0 trao \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1c gi\u1ea5y t\u1edd c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n, bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7\u201d. M\u1ed9t khi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng suy gi\u1ea3m ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf s\u00e2u hay tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7, hay khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 h\u1ea5p thu d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1ec7ch l\u1ea1c v\u00e0 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng trong chu chuy\u1ec3n d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n s\u1ebd xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n. Ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u b\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1eeb chu chuy\u1ec3n c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p sang chu chuy\u1ec3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 l\u00e0 \u2013 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/em> (investment) sang \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 (speculation).<\/p>\n

Kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 lu\u00e2n chuy\u1ec3n ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u1ed1n, lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 trong chu chuy\u1ec3n c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p hay h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gi\u1eefa h\u00e0ng ngo\u1ea1i th\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng phi ngo\u1ea1i th\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 khi gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a hai lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a n\u00e0y bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ebd k\u00e9o theo s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ea3 ph\u00eda cung v\u00e0 ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 di chuy\u1ec3n h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh h\u00e0ng ngo\u1ea1i th\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 phi ngo\u1ea1i th\u01b0\u01a1ng. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p) v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh), th\u00ec s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n

Do v\u1eady, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi cho c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u201cti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e2u?\u201d hay l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao QE \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o ra b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 chung c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 do ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u00e2m ng\u00f2i cho ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (asset speculation), t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c bong b\u00f3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (financial bubbles), trong khi gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 (prices) v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (output) tr\u00ean b\u00ecnh di\u1ec7n t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111ang quan s\u00e1t th\u1ea5y.<\/p>\n

Hyman Minsky v\u00e0 \u201cTh\u1eddi kh\u1eafc Minsky\u201d<\/h4>\n

M\u1ed9t h\u00e0m \u00fd kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m ph\u1ea7n quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c g\u00f3i QE v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. Theo \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c g\u00f3i QE c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5<\/em> (boom-and-bust cycles). Kh\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf theo Keynes ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng lu\u00f4n tin v\u00e0o c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i, nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf Hyman Minsky, cha \u0111\u1ebb c\u1ee7a kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m \u201cth\u1eddi kh\u1eafc Minsky\u201d (Minsky Moment), ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh s\u1ef1 v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. Minsky l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng cho vay c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng tr\u1ea3i qua 3 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u00f3 t\u00ednh tho\u00e1i tr\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00f4ng \u0111\u1eb7t t\u00ean l\u00e0: (1) ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7<\/em> hay t\u1ef1 b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m<\/em> (hedge), (2) \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1<\/em> (speculation), v\u00e0 (3) Ponzi<\/em> (l\u1ea5y ti\u1ec1n t\u1eeb ng\u01b0\u1eddi sau tr\u1ea3 cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u01b0\u1edbc).<\/p>\n

M\u1edf r\u1ed9ng 3 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u00f3 t\u00ednh tho\u00e1i tr\u00e0o trong ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng cho vay c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y ra l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n s\u1ebd th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean, thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i vay c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 ho\u00e0n tr\u1ea3 c\u1ea3 v\u1ed1n g\u1ed1c v\u00e0 l\u00e3i c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n vay. Ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn, thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i vay c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ee7 cao \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 thanh to\u00e1n cho kho\u1ea3n l\u00e3i. V\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh d\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t v\u00e1n b\u00e0i \u0111\u00e1nh c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 trang tr\u1ea3i cho kho\u1ea3n cho vay. Khi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e0 \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng chuy\u1ec3n sang s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m nhanh ch\u00f3ng l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 trong c\u01a1n ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n. S\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i tr\u00ean gi\u1ea5y b\u1ecb x\u00f3a s\u1ed5, k\u00e9o theo n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n theo c\u01a1n ch\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y. Do v\u1eady, Minsky xem QE nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh do ch\u00ednh ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 t\u1ea1o ra. Th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e1ng quan ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

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Th\u1eddi kh\u1eafc Minsky (Minsky Moment) n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi kh\u1eafc kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng do ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 mang t\u00ednh \u0111\u00e1nh c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 li\u1ec1u l\u0129nh di\u1ec5n ra trong m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng. Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m n\u00e0y mu\u1ed1n n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ebf th\u1eddi kh\u1eafc suy gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n tham gia tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Li\u1ec7u \u201cL\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d?<\/h3>\n

V\u1edbi t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch b\u00e1n ch\u1ea1y nh\u1ea5t \u201cThis Time is Different<\/a>\u201d<\/em> (t\u1ea1m d\u1ecbch \u201cL\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d) c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Carmen Reinhart (Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) v\u00e0 \u0111ang b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea3m nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Kinh t\u1ebf Tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, WorldBank) vi\u1ebft c\u00f9ng Ken Rogoff. T\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 mang \u0111\u1eadm d\u1ea5u \u1ea5n v\u1ec1 l\u1eddi c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u00e0 c\u00e1c b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i s\u00e2u v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u 2007-2009 v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n th\u1ebf n\u1eefa. Quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ec1 t\u00e0i tranh lu\u1eadn v\u00e0 b\u00e0n lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c h\u00e0m \u00fd ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong vi\u1ec7c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 gi\u1edbi h\u00e0n l\u00e2m. Reinhart v\u00e0 Rogoff kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb \u201cL\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d. Nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb n\u00e0y trong c\u00e1c b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u00ec l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a t\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

N\u00f4i dung quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch ch\u1ec9 r\u00f5 xuy\u00ean su\u1ed1t chi\u1ec1u d\u00e0i l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u00e0u v\u00e0 ngh\u00e8o ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh cho vay, \u0111i vay, s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 r\u1ed3i h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c<\/em> theo c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh r\u1ea5t b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng. M\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, gi\u1edbi chuy\u00ean gia \u0111\u1ec1u n\u00f3i: \u201c L\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d \u2013 h\u00e0m \u00fd tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u0169 (old rules of valuation) kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng n\u1eefa v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh m\u1edbi c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt nh\u1eefng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 – v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng k\u00e9o theo c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra, b\u1edfi v\u00ec \u201cL\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d!. V\u1edbi t\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, Reinhart v\u00e0 Rogoff ch\u1ee9ng minh r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi chuy\u00ean gia l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n sai.<\/p>\n

C\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u201cL\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d bao ph\u1ee7 66 qu\u1ed1c gia thu\u1ed9c 5 ch\u00e2u l\u1ee5c tr\u1ea3i qua 8 th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c d\u1ea1ng kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u2013 bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c v\u1ee5 v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn \u2013 t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 th\u1eddi trung c\u1ed5 cho \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda cho vay th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p d\u01b0\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n ng\u00e0y nay<\/em>. Reinhart v\u00e0 Rogoff \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7y t\u00ednh c\u00f4ng k\u00edch cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng hay tr\u1ee5c tr\u1eb7c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u00ec \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn \u1edf t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia, bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c l\u1eadp ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o hay c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

Thay l\u1eddi k\u1ebft<\/h3>\n

Gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf nh\u1eefng n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y. M\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u201cl\u1eddi c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o\u201d v\u00e0 \u201cd\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng\u201d th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 \u201ccu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 x\u1ea3y ra\u201d m\u00e0 l\u00e0 nh\u1eb1m l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c h\u00e0nh x\u1eed v\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng sao cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh trong gu\u1ed3ng m\u00e1y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 x\u1ea5u x\u1ea3y ra, \u0111\u00f4i khi l\u00e2y lan th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng mang t\u00ednh th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda. Do v\u1eady, \u0111\u00f4i l\u00fac \u201cd\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1eafp c\u00f3 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng\u201d nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0m cho cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 x\u1ea3y ra l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ed1t. Li\u1ec7u ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb quen thu\u1ed9c \u201cL\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c\u201d n\u1eefa kh\u00f4ng hay c\u0169ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ebft m\u00f2n ph\u1ed5 qu\u00e1t \u2013 cho vay, \u0111i vay, s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng l\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng? \u0110\u1ec3 r\u1ed3i k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c l\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ebd l\u1ea1i r\u01a1i v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm \u2013 v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t\u2013s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 \u201cc\u0169 r\u00edch\u201d. Th\u1eddi gian s\u1ebd c\u00f3 c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ch\u00fang ta.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o<\/h4>\n

Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog: Five phrases coined by Carmen Reinhart<\/a><\/p>\n

Robert Skidelsky (9\/2021), Where Has All the Money Gone?<\/a> Chuy\u00ean trang Project Syndicate<\/p>\n

Robert J. Shiller (10\/2021), Should You Buy a Home in the US?<\/a> Chuy\u00ean trang Project Syndicate<\/p>\n

Xem th\u00eam chi ti\u1ebft b\u00e0i th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn t\u1ea1i 2021WP07 – Ch\u00e2u V\u0103n Th\u00e0nh – Bong b\u00f3ng gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 L\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec Kh\u00e1c<\/a><\/p>\n

B\u00e1o ch\u00ed: Bong b\u00f3ng gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec kh\u00e1c (nhipcaudautu.vn)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"BONG B\u00d3NG GI\u00c1 T\u00c0I S\u1ea2N V\u00c0 \u201cL\u1ea6N N\u00c0Y TH\u00cc KH\u00c1C\u201d Ch\u00e2u V\u0103n Th\u00e0nh Gi\u1ea3ng vi\u00ean Khoa Kinh t\u1ebf, Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Kinh t\u1ebf, Lu\u1eadt v\u00e0 Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Dubai Palace T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u d\u00f9ng cho gi\u1ea3ng d\u1ea1y v\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u. Ng\u00e0y 25\/11\/2021. H\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp ni\u00ean k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb sau cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8157,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[515,107],"tags":[667,440,578,424,576,426],"acf":[],"lang":"vi","translations":{"vi":8147},"pll_sync_post":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8147"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8147"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8147\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8177,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8147\/revisions\/8177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8157"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}