{"id":6070,"date":"2020-05-17T10:48:57","date_gmt":"2020-05-17T03:48:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/?p=6070"},"modified":"2021-06-02T05:53:24","modified_gmt":"2021-06-01T22:53:24","slug":"covid-19-suy-thoai-kinh-te","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/vi\/covid-19-suy-thoai-kinh-te\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0110\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19 v\u00e0 h\u00ecnh d\u1ea1ng suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0110A\u0323I DI\u0323CH COVID-19 VA\u0300 HI\u0300NH DA\u0323NG SUY THOA\u0301I KINH T\u00ca\u0301<\/strong><\/a>1<\/sup><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e2u V\u0103n Th\u00e0nh<\/p>\n

\u201cNh\u01b0\u0303ng ai kh\u00f4ng th\u00ea\u0309 nh\u01a1\u0301 qua\u0301 kh\u01b0\u0301 thi\u0300 kh\u00f4ng tra\u0301nh kho\u0309i l\u0103\u0323p la\u0323i chi\u0301nh \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u \u0111o\u0301 m\u00f4\u0323t l\u00e2\u0300n n\u01b0\u0303a\u201d2<\/sup><\/em> la\u0300 c\u00e2u ch\u00e2m bi\u00ea\u0301m n\u00f4\u0309i ti\u00ea\u0301ng cu\u0309a George Santayana va\u0300o n\u0103m 1905. Li\u0323ch s\u01b0\u0309 ca\u0301c tr\u00e2\u0323n \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch \u0111a\u0303 \u0111\u00e2\u0309y n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u di\u00ea\u0303n ra nh\u01b0 th\u00ea\u0301 na\u0300o ch\u0103\u0301c ch\u0103\u0301n v\u00e2\u0303n co\u0300n ghi la\u0323i trong kho ta\u0300ng t\u01b0 li\u00ea\u0323u th\u00ea\u0301 gi\u01a1\u0301i. Ti\u0301nh \u0111\u00ea\u0301n nga\u0300y 16\/05\/2020, khi \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch Covid-19 lan ra h\u01a1n 210 qu\u00f4\u0301c gia, l\u00e2y nhi\u00ea\u0303m tr\u00ean 4,5 tri\u00ea\u0323u ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i va\u0300 s\u00f4\u0301 ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i t\u01b0\u0309 vong v\u01b0\u01a1\u0323t 300.000 cu\u0300ng v\u01a1\u0301i s\u01b0\u0323 ta\u0300n pha\u0301 d\u01b0\u0303 d\u00f4\u0323i n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u, s\u01b0\u0323 hi\u00ea\u0309u bi\u00ea\u0301t v\u00ea\u0300 li\u0323ch s\u01b0\u0309 kinh t\u00ea\u0301 nh\u0103\u0301c la\u0323i v\u00ea\u0300 ca\u0301c cu\u00f4\u0323c suy thoa\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i hi\u0300nh da\u0323ng kha\u0301c nhau: V, U, L hay W. Cu\u00f4\u0323c suy thoa\u0301i kinh t\u00ea\u0301 l\u00e2\u0300n na\u0300y thu\u00f4\u0323c hi\u0300nh da\u0323ng na\u0300o? \u0110\u00e2u la\u0300 ba\u0300i ho\u0323c kinh nghi\u00ea\u0323m ru\u0301t ra \u0111\u00ea\u0309 co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 tra\u0301nh ca\u0301c sai l\u00e2\u0300m t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u01b0\u0323? Sau \u0111\u00e2y la\u0300 t\u00f4\u0309ng h\u01a1\u0323p m\u00f4\u0323t va\u0300i ca\u0301ch nhi\u0300n va\u0300 ph\u00e2n ti\u0301ch t\u01b0\u0300 ca\u0301c nha\u0300 kinh t\u00ea\u0301 va\u0300 ca\u0301c nha\u0300 hoa\u0323ch \u0111i\u0323nh chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch.<\/p>\n

Covid-19 va\u0300 suy thoa\u0301i hi\u0300nh W<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u01a1\u0301i tha\u0301ng 3\/2020, nhi\u00ea\u0300u ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i tin r\u0103\u0300ng m\u00f4\u0323t s\u00f4\u0301 n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 hoa\u0300n toa\u0300n co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 phu\u0323c h\u00f4\u0300i theo da\u0323ng ch\u01b0\u0303 V, khi ma\u0300 s\u00f4\u0301 ca nhi\u00ea\u0303m va\u0300 s\u00f4\u0301 ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i t\u01b0\u0309 vong b\u0103\u0301t \u0111\u00e2\u0300u gia\u0309m, k\u00ea\u0301 hoa\u0323ch ta\u0301i m\u01a1\u0309 c\u01b0\u0309a kinh t\u00ea\u0301, vi\u00ea\u0323c la\u0300m tr\u01a1\u0309 la\u0323i, ti\u00eau du\u0300ng va\u0300 \u0111\u00e2\u0300u t\u01b0 gia t\u0103ng va\u0300 s\u01b0\u0301c c\u00e2\u0300u d\u00e2\u0300n h\u00f4\u0300i phu\u0323c. \u0110\u00e2y cu\u0303ng la\u0300 m\u00f4 th\u01b0\u0301c h\u00f4\u0300i phu\u0323c sau ca\u0301c tha\u0309m ho\u0323a t\u01b0\u0323 nhi\u00ean (\u0111\u00f4\u0323ng \u0111\u00e2\u0301t, ba\u0303o lu\u0323t) cu\u0303ng nh\u01b0 di\u0323ch b\u00ea\u0323nh (SARS 2003) \u0111a\u0303 t\u01b0\u0300ng la\u0300m cho GDP nhi\u00ea\u0300u qu\u00f4\u0301c gia bi\u0323 ta\u0301c \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng ma\u0323nh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u00f4 th\u01b0\u0301c ch\u01b0\u0303 V co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 kho\u0301 xa\u0309y ra v\u01a1\u0301i h\u00e2\u0323u Covid-19 l\u00e2\u0300n na\u0300y.<\/p>\n

Vi\u00ea\u0303n ca\u0309nh cho s\u01b0\u0323 phu\u0323c h\u00f4\u0300i ch\u01b0\u0303 U \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c hi\u00ea\u0309u khi ma\u0300 m\u00f4\u0323t s\u00f4\u0301 ph\u00e2n khu\u0301c cu\u0309a n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 ta\u0301i m\u01a1\u0309 c\u01b0\u0309a, m\u00f4\u0323t ph\u00e2\u0300n lao \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng va\u0300 m\u00f4\u0323t s\u00f4\u0301 nga\u0300nh sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t ta\u0301i kh\u01a1\u0309i \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng ta\u0323m th\u01a1\u0300i cho \u0111\u00ea\u0301n khi cu\u00f4\u0323c khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng s\u01b0\u0301c kho\u0309e \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ki\u00ea\u0309m soa\u0301t, t\u00e2\u0301t ca\u0309 ca\u0301c khu v\u01b0\u0323c ta\u0301i kh\u01a1\u0309i \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng tr\u01a1\u0309 la\u0323i va\u0300 n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 phu\u0323c h\u00f4\u0300i hoa\u0300n toa\u0300n. Ki\u0323ch ba\u0309n na\u0300y se\u0303 y\u00eau c\u00e2\u0300u ca\u0301c qu\u00f4\u0301c gia ba\u0309o \u0111a\u0309m theo tri\u0300nh t\u01b0\u0323, xe\u0301t nghi\u00ea\u0323m \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ti\u00ea\u0301n ha\u0300nh tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 l\u01a1\u0301n, va\u0300 m\u00f4\u0301i quan h\u00ea\u0323 gi\u01b0\u0303a kha\u0301ng th\u00ea\u0309 va\u0300 mi\u00ea\u0303n nhi\u00ea\u0303m \u0111\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i Covid-19 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c xa\u0301c nh\u00e2\u0323n, ly\u0301 t\u01b0\u01a1\u0309ng h\u01a1n la\u0300 v\u0103\u0301c xin \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c nghi\u00ean c\u01b0\u0301u tha\u0300nh c\u00f4ng s\u01a1\u0301m thi\u0300 vi\u00ea\u0323c h\u00f4\u0300i phu\u0323c va\u0300 m\u01a1\u0309 c\u01b0\u0309a kinh t\u00ea\u0301 se\u0303 kha\u0309 thi.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng v\u01a1\u0301i nh\u01b0\u0303ng gi\u0300 \u0111ang di\u00ea\u0303n ra cho \u0111\u00ea\u0301n gi\u01b0\u0303a tha\u0301ng 5\/2020 cho th\u00e2\u0301y, nhi\u00ea\u0300u kha\u0309 n\u0103ng hi\u0300nh da\u0301ng phu\u0323c h\u00f4\u0300i ch\u01b0\u0303 W \u0111ang hi\u00ea\u0323n ra. Suy thoa\u0301i da\u0323ng W \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c hi\u00ea\u0309u la\u0300 m\u00f4\u0323t hi\u0300nh th\u01b0\u0301c phu\u0323c h\u00f4\u0300i m\u01a1\u0301i v\u01b0\u0300a b\u0103\u0301t \u0111\u00e2\u0300u la\u0323i ti\u00ea\u0301p theo la\u0300 s\u01b0\u0323 ta\u0301i pha\u0301t ti\u00ea\u0301p di\u00ea\u0303n. M\u00f4\u0323t va\u0300i d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o co\u0300n cho r\u0103\u0300ng cu\u00f4\u0323c suy thoa\u0301i hi\u00ea\u0323n ha\u0300nh co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 x\u00e2\u0301u h\u01a1n ca\u0309 cu\u00f4\u0323c \u0110a\u0323i Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng th\u00e2\u0323p ni\u00ean 1930. Theo gia\u0301o s\u01b0 Jeffrey Frankel3<\/sup> , s\u01a1\u0309 di\u0303 \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u na\u0300y co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 xa\u0309y ra la\u0300 do th\u00e2\u0301t ba\u0323i v\u00ea\u0300 ca\u0301c ba\u0300i ho\u0323c li\u0323ch s\u01b0\u0309 va\u0300 hai sai l\u00e2\u0300m chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch:<\/p>\n

Sai l\u00e2\u0300m th\u01b0\u0301 nh\u00e2\u0301t, co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 co\u0301 nhi\u00ea\u0300u la\u0300n so\u0301ng di\u0323ch b\u00ea\u0323nh ta\u0301i pha\u0301t t\u01b0\u0300 vi\u00ea\u0323c d\u01a1\u0303 bo\u0309 ca\u0301c ha\u0323n ch\u00ea\u0301 qua\u0301 s\u01a1\u0301m<\/em>. Tr\u00e2\u0323n \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch cu\u0301m T\u00e2y Ban Nha khoa\u0309ng m\u00f4\u0323t th\u00ea\u0301 ky\u0309 tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c, ri\u00eang Hoa Ky\u0300 \u0111a\u0303 ga\u0301nh chi\u0323u ba la\u0300n so\u0301ng tu\u00e2\u0300n t\u01b0\u0323 quay tr\u01a1\u0309 la\u0323i: la\u0300n so\u0301ng th\u01b0\u0301 nh\u00e2\u0301t va\u0300o \u0111\u00e2\u0300u n\u0103m 1918; la\u0300n so\u0301ng th\u01b0\u0301 hai va\u0300o tha\u0301ng 9\/1918 g\u00e2y ch\u00ea\u0301t cho\u0301c th\u00e2\u0323m chi\u0301 nhi\u00ea\u0300u h\u01a1n l\u00e2\u0300n m\u00f4\u0323t; va\u0300 la\u0300n so\u0301ng th\u01b0\u0301 ba ke\u0301o da\u0300i cho \u0111\u00ea\u0301n n\u0103m 1920. V\u01a1\u0301i \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch Covid-19 l\u00e2\u0300n na\u0300y, d\u00e2\u0301u hi\u00ea\u0323u la\u0300n so\u0301ng th\u01b0\u0301 hai co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 \u0111ang di\u00ea\u0303n ra va\u0300 s\u0103\u0301p di\u00ea\u0303n ra \u01a1\u0309 m\u00f4\u0323t s\u00f4\u0301 qu\u00f4\u0301c gia t\u01b0\u0300 chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch ta\u0301i m\u01a1\u0309 c\u01b0\u0309a v\u00f4\u0323i va\u0300ng n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00f4\u0301ng nh\u01b0 nga\u0300y nay, n\u0103m 1918, ca\u0301c tha\u0300nh ph\u00f4\u0301 thi\u00ea\u0301t l\u00e2\u0323p ca\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p gia\u0303n ca\u0301ch xa\u0303 h\u00f4\u0323i, bao g\u00f4\u0300m \u0111o\u0301ng c\u01b0\u0309a tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0300ng ho\u0323c, c\u00e2\u0301m tu\u0323 t\u00e2\u0323p n\u01a1i c\u00f4ng c\u00f4\u0323ng, y\u00eau c\u00e2\u0300u mang kh\u00e2\u0309u trang hay t\u00e2\u0301m che m\u0103\u0323t. M\u00f4\u0323t nghi\u00ean c\u01b0\u0301u n\u0103m 2007 cu\u0309a Vi\u00ea\u0323n Ha\u0300n l\u00e2m Khoa ho\u0323c Qu\u00f4\u0301c gia Hoa Ky\u0300 (National Academy of Sciences) ti\u0300m th\u00e2\u0301y k\u00ea\u0301t qua\u0309 cho r\u0103\u0300ng s\u01b0\u0323 tha\u0300nh c\u00f4ng cu\u0309a ca\u0301c tha\u0300nh ph\u00f4\u0301 \u01a1\u0309 Hoa Ky\u0300 giu\u0301p gia\u0309m s\u00f4\u0301 ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i t\u01b0\u0309 vong thi\u0300 \u201cth\u01b0\u01a1\u0300ng la\u0300 r\u00e2\u0301t ha\u0323n ch\u00ea\u0301 b\u01a1\u0309i vi\u0300 ca\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p can thi\u00ea\u0323p \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ban ha\u0300nh qua\u0301 tr\u00ea\u0303 va\u0300 ca\u0301c can thi\u00ea\u0323p d\u01a1\u0303 bo\u0309 ca\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p la\u0300 qua\u0301 s\u01a1\u0301m\u201d<\/p>\n

San Francisco la\u0300 m\u00f4\u0323t vi\u0301 du\u0323 v\u00ea\u0300 vi\u00ea\u0323c d\u01a1\u0303 bo\u0309 bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p can thi\u00ea\u0323p qua\u0301 s\u01a1\u0301m trong \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch 1918. Tha\u0300nh ph\u00f4\u0301 na\u0300y \u0111a\u0303 gia\u0309m ty\u0309 l\u00ea\u0323 t\u01b0\u0309 vong i\u0301t nh\u00e2\u0301t la\u0300 25% – m\u01b0\u0301c cao nh\u00e2\u0301t trong s\u00f4\u0301 ca\u0301c tha\u0300nh ph\u00f4\u0301 Hoa Ky\u0300. Nh\u01b0ng thay vi\u0300 ti\u00ea\u0301p tu\u0323c duy tri\u0300 cam k\u00ea\u0301t can thi\u00ea\u0323p, tha\u0300nh c\u00f4ng na\u0300y \u0111a\u0303 la\u0300m cho ho\u0323 d\u01a1\u0303 bo\u0309 ca\u0301c can thi\u00ea\u0323p va\u0300o tha\u0301ng 11; la\u0300n so\u0301ng th\u01b0\u0301 hai g\u00e2y ch\u00ea\u0301t cho\u0301c nhi\u00ea\u0300u h\u01a1n do l\u00e2y nhi\u00ea\u0303m xu\u00e2\u0301t hi\u00ea\u0323n va\u0300o tha\u0301ng 12 va\u0300 tha\u0301ng 01. Nghi\u00ean c\u01b0\u0301u \u01b0\u01a1\u0301c ti\u0301nh n\u00ea\u0301u San Francisco duy tri\u0300 ca\u0301c quy t\u0103\u0301c gia\u0303n ca\u0301ch xa\u0303 h\u00f4\u0323i l\u00e2u h\u01a1n, tha\u0300nh ph\u00f4\u0301 na\u0300y \u0111a\u0303 co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 gia\u0309m 95% danh sa\u0301ch ch\u00ea\u0301t cho\u0301c cu\u0309a mi\u0300nh.<\/p>\n

Ha\u0300n Qu\u00f4\u0301c la\u0300 m\u00f4\u0323t minh ch\u01b0\u0301ng th\u00e2\u0301t ba\u0323i hi\u00ea\u0323n ha\u0300nh cho vi\u00ea\u0323c d\u01a1\u0303 bo\u0309 nhanh ca\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p ha\u0323n ch\u00ea\u0301 l\u00e2\u0300n na\u0300y. Ch\u1ec9 4 nga\u0300y sau khi b\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c sang giai \u0111oa\u0323n m\u01a1\u0301i, nga\u0300y 9\/5\/2020, Seoul \u0111a\u0303 pha\u0309i \u0111o\u0301ng c\u01b0\u0309a v\u00f4 th\u01a1\u0300i ha\u0323n t\u00e2\u0301t ca\u0309 qua\u0301n bar va\u0300 h\u00f4\u0323p \u0111\u00eam do pha\u0301t hi\u00ea\u0323n cu\u0323m di\u0323ch ta\u0323i nh\u01b0\u0303ng c\u01a1 s\u01a1\u0309 thu\u00f4\u0323c khu v\u01b0\u0323c Itaewon. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u01b0\u0323, Singapore va\u0300 Nh\u00e2\u0323t Ba\u0309n cu\u0303ng pha\u0309i quay tr\u01a1\u0309 v\u00ea\u0300 chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch gia\u0303n ca\u0301ch xa\u0303 h\u00f4\u0323i ban \u0111\u00e2\u0300u khi la\u0300n so\u0301ng l\u00e2y nhi\u00ea\u0303m th\u01b0\u0301 hai xu\u00e2\u0301t hi\u00ea\u0323n kh\u00f4ng l\u00e2u sau khi d\u01a1\u0303 bo\u0309 ca\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p ha\u0323n ch\u00ea\u0301. \u0110i\u00ea\u0300u \u0111a\u0301ng no\u0301i la\u0300 ca\u0309 Ha\u0300n Qu\u00f4\u0301c, Singapore va\u0300 Nh\u00e2\u0323t Ba\u0309n t\u01b0\u0300ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ca ng\u01a1\u0323i la\u0300 hi\u0300nh m\u00e2\u0303u ch\u00f4\u0301ng Covid-19 hi\u00ea\u0323u qua\u0309 ma\u0300 kh\u00f4ng c\u00e2\u0300n a\u0301p du\u0323ng nh\u01b0\u0303ng bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p phong to\u0309a ch\u0103\u0323t che\u0303. Nh\u00e2\u0301t la\u0300 \u01a1\u0309 Ha\u0300n Qu\u00f4\u0301c, nh\u01a1\u0300 xe\u0301t nghi\u00ea\u0323m di\u00ea\u0323n r\u00f4\u0323ng, c\u00f4ng ngh\u00ea\u0323 truy v\u00ea\u0301t ti\u00ea\u0301p xu\u0301c, ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i d\u00e2n h\u01a1\u0323p ta\u0301c va\u0300 tu\u00e2n thu\u0309 ca\u0301ch bi\u00ea\u0323t c\u00f4\u0323ng \u0111\u00f4\u0300ng \u0111a\u0303 giu\u0301p nhanh cho\u0301ng la\u0300m ph\u1eb3ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0300ng cong l\u00e2y nhi\u00ea\u0303m va\u0300 ch\u00ea\u0301t cho\u0301c tr\u00ean bi\u00ea\u0309u \u0111\u00f4\u0300 Covid-19.<\/p>\n

Sai l\u00e2\u0300m th\u01b0\u0301 hai, ca\u0301c nha\u0300 la\u0303nh \u0111a\u0323o chi\u0301nh tri\u0323 d\u01b0\u0300ng ca\u0301c go\u0301i ki\u0301ch thi\u0301ch kinh t\u00ea\u0301 qua\u0301 s\u01a1\u0301m<\/em>. Nh\u01b0\u0303ng s\u01b0\u0323 ki\u00ea\u0323n n\u0103m 1936-1937 \u01a1\u0309 Hoa Ky\u0300 la\u0300 minh ch\u01b0\u0301ng.<\/p>\n

N\u0103m 1936, tho\u0309a ma\u0303n v\u01a1\u0301i s\u01b0\u0323 ti\u00ea\u0301n tri\u00ea\u0309n trong vi\u00ea\u0323c h\u00f4\u0300i phu\u0323c sau suy thoa\u0301i s\u00e2u b\u0103\u0301t \u0111\u00e2\u0300u t\u01b0\u0300 7 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c \u0111o\u0301, chi\u0301nh quy\u00ea\u0300n T\u00f4\u0309ng th\u00f4\u0301ng Franklin D. Roosevelt \u0111a\u0303 b\u0103\u0301t \u0111\u00e2\u0300u gia\u0309m chi ti\u00eau li\u00ean bang va\u0300 t\u0103ng thu\u00ea\u0301. \u0110\u00f4\u0300ng th\u01a1\u0300i lu\u0301c \u0111o\u0301, Cu\u0323c D\u01b0\u0323 tr\u01b0\u0303 Li\u00ean bang Hoa Ky\u0300 Fed th\u0103\u0301t ch\u0103\u0323t chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323, t\u0103ng g\u00e2\u0301p \u0111\u00f4i y\u00eau c\u00e2\u0300u d\u01b0\u0323 tr\u01b0\u0303 ng\u00e2n ha\u0300ng va\u0300 v\u00f4 hi\u00ea\u0323u ho\u0301a do\u0300ng va\u0300o cu\u0309a va\u0300ng. \u0110\u00ea\u0301n n\u0103m 1937, n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 Hoa Ky\u0300 quay v\u00ea\u0300 ti\u0300nh tra\u0323ng suy thoa\u0301i nghi\u00eam tro\u0323ng va\u0300 ke\u0301o da\u0300i su\u00f4\u0301t n\u0103m 1938.<\/p>\n

Ca\u0301c nha\u0300 hoa\u0323ch \u0111i\u0323nh chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch Hoa Ky\u0300 \u0111a\u0303 v\u00e2\u0301p pha\u0309i sai l\u00e2\u0300m t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u01b0\u0323 sau khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u 2008. Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tri\u0300nh ki\u0301ch thi\u0301ch ta\u0300i kho\u0301a cu\u0309a T\u00f4\u0309ng th\u00f4\u0301ng Barack Obama \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ban ha\u0300nh va\u0300o tha\u0301ng 2\/2009 cu\u0300ng v\u01a1\u0301i chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch m\u01a1\u0309 r\u00f4\u0323ng ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323 cu\u0309a Fed \u0111a\u0303 ng\u0103n ch\u0103\u0323n \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ti\u0300nh tra\u0323ng r\u01a1i t\u01b0\u0323 do cu\u0309a n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301. S\u01b0\u0323 h\u00f4\u0300i phu\u0323c b\u0103\u0301t \u0111\u00e2\u0300u va\u0300o tha\u0301ng 6 n\u0103m \u0111o\u0301. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00ea\u0301n n\u0103m 2011, sau khi ca\u0301c \u0111a\u0323i bi\u00ea\u0309u \u0110a\u0309ng C\u00f4\u0323ng Ho\u0300a n\u0103\u0301m quy\u00ea\u0300n ki\u00ea\u0309m soa\u0301t Qu\u00f4\u0301c h\u00f4\u0323i Hoa Ky\u0300, chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch ki\u0301ch thi\u0301ch ta\u0300i kho\u0301a \u0111a\u0303 k\u00ea\u0301t thu\u0301c s\u01a1\u0301m g\u00e2y ra nh\u01b0\u0303ng ca\u0309n tr\u01a1\u0309 cho s\u01b0\u0323 phu\u0323c h\u00f4\u0300i m\u00f4\u0323t ca\u0301ch \u0111a\u0301ng k\u00ea\u0309.<\/p>\n

Co\u0301 ly\u0301 do \u0111\u00ea\u0309 lo l\u0103\u0301ng v\u00ea\u0300 vi\u00ea\u0323c ca\u0301c nha\u0300 hoa\u0323ch \u0111i\u0323nh chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch Hoa Ky\u0300 se\u0303 r\u01a1i va\u0300o sai l\u00e2\u0300m t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u01b0\u0323 hi\u00ea\u0323n nay. Trong khi ca\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p ta\u0300i kho\u0301a va\u0300 ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323 cu\u0309a ca\u0309 hai \u0111a\u0309ng \u0111ang ti\u00ea\u0301n ha\u0300nh kha\u0301 t\u00f4\u0301t, nh\u01b0ng m\u00e2\u0323u thu\u00e2\u0303n n\u00f4\u0323i ta\u0323i v\u00e2\u0303n co\u0300n \u0111o\u0301. Cu\u00f4\u0323c b\u00e2\u0300u c\u01b0\u0309 T\u00f4\u0309ng th\u00f4\u0301ng tha\u0301ng 11\/2020 ch\u01b0a bi\u00ea\u0301t k\u00ea\u0301t cu\u0323c th\u00ea\u0301 na\u0300o. C\u00f4ng \u0103n vi\u00ea\u0323c la\u0300m va\u0300 hoa\u0323t \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng kinh t\u00ea\u0301 v\u00e2\u0303n co\u0300n l\u00e2u m\u01a1\u0301i tr\u01a1\u0309 la\u0323i tra\u0323ng tha\u0301i cu\u0303. Ca\u0301c go\u0301i ki\u0301ch thi\u0301ch kinh t\u00ea\u0301 kh\u00f4\u0309ng l\u00f4\u0300 \u0111\u00e2\u0309y th\u00e2m hu\u0323t va\u0300 n\u01a1\u0323 t\u0103ng cao nhanh cho\u0301ng. Ty\u0309 s\u00f4\u0301 n\u01a1\u0323 tr\u00ean GDP cu\u0309a Hoa Ky\u0300 se\u0303 leo l\u00ean v\u01b0\u01a1\u0323t kho\u0309i 100% va\u0300o cu\u00f4\u0301i n\u0103m ta\u0300i kho\u0301a. V\u00f4\u0301n di\u0303 th\u00e2m hu\u0323t ng\u00e2n sa\u0301ch b\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c va\u0300o n\u0103m 2020 \u0111a\u0303 la\u0300 1000 ty\u0309 d\u00f4 la.<\/p>\n

Theo gia\u0301o s\u01b0 Jeffrey Frankel, ca\u0301c nha\u0300 hoa\u0323ch \u0111i\u0323nh chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch \u01a1\u0309 b\u00e2\u0301t ky\u0300 n\u01a1i \u0111\u00e2u n\u00ean nh\u01a1\u0301 quy t\u0103\u0301c \u0111\u00e2\u0300u tay \u0111\u01a1n gia\u0309n; \u0111\u00ea\u0309 ng\u0103n ch\u0103\u0323n m\u00f4\u0323t cu\u00f4\u0323c suy thoa\u0301i da\u0323ng ch\u01b0\u0303 W, ha\u0303y \u0111\u00ea\u0309 ch\u01b0\u0303 \u201cW\u201d \u0111a\u0323i di\u00ea\u0323n cho \u201cru\u0301t la\u0323i\u201d (ch\u01b0\u0303 W trong t\u01b0\u0300 \u201cwithdrawal\u201d) v\u00ea\u0300 ca\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p s\u01b0\u0301c kho\u0309e c\u00f4\u0323ng \u0111\u00f4\u0300ng va\u0300 ca\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p ki\u0301ch thi\u0301ch kinh t\u00ea\u0301. Nh\u01b0 ca\u0301c cu\u00f4\u0323c khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c \u0111o\u0301 \u0111a\u0303 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u0103\u0300ng ca\u0301c \u0111\u00ea\u0300 xu\u00e2\u0301t nh\u01b0 v\u00e2\u0323y n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ng\u0103n ch\u0103\u0323n gi\u00f4\u0301ng nh\u01b0 la\u0300 ng\u0103n ch\u0103\u0323n m\u00f4\u0323t tha\u0309m ho\u0323a v\u00e2\u0323y.<\/p>\n

Co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 la\u0300 suy thoa\u0301i da\u0323ng ch\u01b0\u0303 L va\u0300 h\u00ea\u0323 qua\u0309 ke\u0301o da\u0300i ha\u0300ng th\u00e2\u0323p ni\u00ean<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gia\u0301o s\u01b0 Nouriel Roubini4<\/sup> thi\u0300 cho r\u0103\u0300ng \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch Covid-19 th\u00e2\u0323m chi\u0301 co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 d\u00e2\u0303n \u0111\u00ea\u0301n cu\u00f4\u0323c \u0110a\u0323i Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng co\u0300n tr\u00e2\u0300m tro\u0323ng h\u01a1n (Greater Depression) theo suy thoa\u0301i hi\u0300nh ch\u01b0\u0303 L \u0111\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u trong th\u00e2\u0323p ni\u00ean ti\u00ea\u0301p theo<\/em><\/span> v\u01a1\u0301i m\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i<\/span> xu h\u01b0\u01a1\u0301ng ru\u0309i ro \u0111a\u0301ng quan nga\u0323i:<\/p>\n

Th\u01b0\u0301 nh\u00e2\u0301t, th\u00e2m hu\u0323t va\u0300 h\u00ea\u0323 qua\u0309 ru\u0309i ro ke\u0301o theo: n\u01a1\u0323 va\u0300 v\u01a1\u0303 n\u01a1\u0323<\/em>. Th\u00e2m hu\u0323t ng\u00e2n sa\u0301ch kh\u00f4\u0309ng l\u00f4\u0300 nh\u0103\u0300m pha\u0309n \u01b0\u0301ng \u0111a\u0301p la\u0323i khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng Covid-19, nhi\u00ea\u0300u n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c th\u00e2\u0323m chi\u0301 l\u00ean \u0111\u00ea\u0301n 10% tr\u01a1\u0309 l\u00ean, trong khi m\u01b0\u0301c n\u01a1\u0323 c\u00f4ng \u0111a\u0303 qua\u0301 cao va\u0300 kh\u00f4ng b\u00ea\u0300n v\u01b0\u0303ng5<\/sup>. B\u00ean ca\u0323nh \u0111o\u0301, m\u00e2\u0301t vi\u00ea\u0323c la\u0300m va\u0300 thu nh\u00e2\u0323p la\u0300m cho n\u01a1\u0323 khu v\u01b0\u0323c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n t\u0103ng nhanh, ti\u00ea\u0300m ta\u0300ng d\u00e2\u0303n \u0111\u00ea\u0301n m\u00e2\u0301t kha\u0309 n\u0103ng thanh toa\u0301n, v\u01a1\u0303 n\u01a1\u0323 va\u0300 pha\u0301 sa\u0309n ha\u0300ng loa\u0323t.<\/p>\n

Thu\u0301 hai, qua\u0309 bom he\u0323n gi\u01a1\u0300 v\u00ea\u0300 nh\u00e2n kh\u00e2\u0309u ho\u0323c<\/em>. Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng Covid-19 ch\u1ec9 ra vi\u00ea\u0323c chi ti\u00eau c\u00f4ng c\u00e2\u0300n pha\u0309i \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ph\u00e2n b\u00f4\u0309 cho h\u00ea\u0323 th\u00f4\u0301ng y t\u00ea\u0301, ch\u0103m so\u0301c s\u01b0\u0301c kho\u0309e c\u00f4\u0323ng \u0111\u00f4\u0300ng va\u0300 ca\u0301c ha\u0300ng ho\u0301a c\u00f4ng li\u00ean quan kha\u0301c ch\u01b0\u0301 kh\u00f4ng pha\u0309i ha\u0300ng ho\u0301a xa x\u1ec9. Nh\u01b0ng h\u00e2\u0300u h\u00ea\u0301t ca\u0301c n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c pha\u0301t tri\u00ea\u0309n va\u0300 th\u00e2\u0323m chi\u0301 nhi\u00ea\u0300u qu\u00f4\u0301c gia \u0111ang pha\u0301t tri\u00ea\u0309n \u0111\u00f4\u0301i di\u00ea\u0323n ti\u0300nh tra\u0323ng xa\u0303 h\u00f4\u0323i gia\u0300 ho\u0301a, vi\u00ea\u0323c ta\u0300i tr\u01a1\u0323 cho nh\u01b0\u0303ng khoa\u0309n chi ti\u00eau nh\u01b0 v\u00e2\u0323y trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai se\u0303 ta\u0323o ra nh\u01b0\u0303ng khoa\u0309n n\u01a1\u0323 \u00e2\u0309n ng\u00e2\u0300m t\u01b0\u0300 h\u00ea\u0323 th\u00f4\u0301ng an sinh xa\u0303 h\u00f4\u0323i va\u0300 ch\u0103m so\u0301c y t\u00ea\u0301.<\/p>\n

Th\u01b0\u0301 ba, gia t\u0103ng ru\u0309i ro gia\u0309m pha\u0301t<\/em>. B\u00ean ca\u0323nh suy thoa\u0301i s\u00e2u, cu\u00f4\u0323c khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng cu\u0303ng ta\u0323o ra m\u00f4\u0323t l\u01b0\u01a1\u0323ng kh\u00f4\u0309ng l\u00f4\u0300 c\u00f4ng su\u00e2\u0301t sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t va\u0300 ma\u0301y mo\u0301c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng va\u0300 th\u00e2\u0301t nghi\u00ea\u0323p tra\u0300n lan, cu\u0303ng nh\u01b0 s\u01b0\u0323 su\u0323p \u0111\u00f4\u0309 gia\u0301 ca\u0309 ha\u0300ng ho\u0301a c\u01a1 ba\u0309n nh\u01b0 d\u00e2\u0300u va\u0300 kim loa\u0323i sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t c\u00f4ng nghi\u00ea\u0323p6<\/sup>. Hi\u00ea\u0323n t\u01b0\u01a1\u0323ng Gia\u0309m pha\u0301t \u2013 N\u01a1\u0323<\/em> co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 xa\u0309y ra va\u0300 la\u0300m gia t\u0103ng ru\u0309i ro v\u01a1\u0303 n\u01a1\u0323<\/p>\n

Th\u01b0\u0301 t\u01b0, gia\u0309m gia\u0301 ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323<\/em>. Khi ca\u0301c ng\u00e2n ha\u0300ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f4\u0301 g\u0103\u0301ng ch\u00f4\u0301ng gia\u0309m pha\u0301t va\u0300 ng\u0103n ca\u0309n ru\u0309i ro gia t\u0103ng la\u0303i su\u00e2\u0301t (theo sau nh\u01b0\u0303ng khoa\u0309n n\u01a1\u0323 nga\u0300y ca\u0300ng kh\u00f4\u0309ng l\u00f4\u0300 pha\u0301t sinh), ca\u0301c chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323 se\u0303 tr\u01a1\u0309 n\u00ean phi truy\u00ea\u0300n th\u00f4\u0301ng nhi\u00ea\u0300u h\u01a1n va\u0300 tr\u00ean bi\u0300nh di\u00ea\u0323n r\u00f4\u0323ng h\u01a1n (gia\u0309i pha\u0301p QE ch\u1eb3ng ha\u0323n). Trong ng\u0103\u0301n ha\u0323n, ca\u0301c chi\u0301nh phu\u0309 se\u0303 c\u00e2\u0300n v\u00e2\u0323n ha\u0300nh theo ki\u00ea\u0309u th\u00e2m hu\u0323t ng\u00e2n sa\u0301ch \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323 ho\u0301a (monetized fiscal deficits) \u0111\u00ea\u0309 ng\u0103n ch\u0103\u0323n suy thoa\u0301i s\u00e2u va\u0300 gia\u0309m pha\u0301t. Nh\u01b0ng theo th\u01a1\u0300i gian, ca\u0301c cu\u0301 s\u00f4\u0301c cung ti\u00eau c\u01b0\u0323c ke\u0301o da\u0300i t\u01b0\u0300 xu h\u01b0\u01a1\u0301ng suy gia\u0309m toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u ho\u0301a va\u0300 chu\u0309 nghi\u0303a ba\u0309o h\u00f4\u0323 ta\u0301i l\u00e2\u0323p se\u0303 la\u0300m cho ti\u0300nh tra\u0323ng \u0111i\u0300nh la\u0323m (stagflation) xa\u0309y ra.<\/p>\n

Th\u01b0\u0301 n\u0103m, gia\u0301n \u0111oa\u0323n s\u01b0\u0323 li\u00ean k\u00ea\u0301t kinh t\u00ea\u0301 toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u va\u0300 n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 co\u0301 ti\u0301nh s\u00f4\u0301 ho\u0301a tr\u00ean bi\u0300nh di\u00ea\u0323n r\u00f4\u0323ng h\u01a1n<\/em>. V\u01a1\u0301i ha\u0300ng tri\u00ea\u0323u ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i m\u00e2\u0301t vi\u00ea\u0323c la\u0300m hay \u0111ang la\u0300m vi\u00ea\u0323c va\u0300 nh\u00e2\u0323n l\u01b0\u01a1ng i\u0301t h\u01a1n, h\u00f4\u0301 ca\u0301ch cu\u0309a ca\u0309i va\u0300 thu nh\u00e2\u0323p cu\u0309a n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 th\u00ea\u0301 ky\u0309 21 se\u0303 nga\u0300y ca\u0300ng n\u01a1\u0301i r\u00f4\u0323ng h\u01a1n. \u0110\u00ea\u0309 ba\u0309o \u0111a\u0309m ch\u00f4\u0301ng la\u0323i ca\u0301c cu\u0301 s\u00f4\u0301c chu\u00f4\u0303i cung \u01b0\u0301ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, ca\u0301c c\u00f4ng ty \u01a1\u0309 ca\u0301c n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c ti\u00ean ti\u00ea\u0301n se\u0303 ta\u0301i s\u0103\u0301p x\u00ea\u0301p gia c\u00f4ng sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t t\u01b0\u0300 ca\u0301c vu\u0300ng chi phi\u0301 th\u00e2\u0301p h\u01a1n sang ca\u0301c thi\u0323 tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0300ng n\u00f4\u0323i \u0111i\u0323a chi phi\u0301 cao h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0ng thay vi\u0300 giu\u0301p cho nh\u01b0\u0303ng ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i lao \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng ta\u0323i n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c mi\u0300nh, xu h\u01b0\u01a1\u0301ng na\u0300y se\u0303 la\u0300m t\u0103ng t\u00f4\u0301c t\u01b0\u0323 \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng ho\u0301a, ta\u0323o ra a\u0301p l\u01b0\u0323c gia\u0309m ti\u00ea\u0300n l\u01b0\u01a1ng va\u0300 xa h\u01a1n la\u0300m gia t\u0103ng ngo\u0323n l\u01b0\u0309a cu\u0309a chu\u0309 nghi\u0303a d\u00e2n tu\u0301y, chu\u0309 nghi\u0303a qu\u00f4\u0301c gia va\u0300 ba\u0300i ngoa\u0323i.<\/p>\n

Th\u01b0\u0301 sa\u0301u, gia\u0309m toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u ho\u0301a<\/em> (de-globalization). \u0110a\u0323i di\u0323ch \u0111ang la\u0300m t\u0103ng t\u00f4\u0301c xu h\u01b0\u01a1\u0301ng ph\u00e2n ra\u0303 toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u. Hoa Ky\u0300 va\u0300 Trung Qu\u00f4\u0301c se\u0303 ta\u0301ch nhau ra, va\u0300 h\u00e2\u0300u h\u00ea\u0301t ca\u0301c qu\u00f4\u0301c gia se\u0303 pha\u0309n \u01b0\u0301ng b\u0103\u0300ng ca\u0301ch gia t\u0103ng ca\u0301c chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch ba\u0309o h\u00f4\u0323 nh\u0103\u0300m che ch\u0103\u0301n cho ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i lao \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng va\u0300 ca\u0301c doanh nghi\u00ea\u0323p trong n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c t\u01b0\u0300 s\u01b0\u0323 gia\u0301n \u0111oa\u0323n toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u. Th\u00ea\u0301 gi\u01a1\u0301i sau \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch se\u0303 \u0111a\u0301nh d\u00e2\u0301u b\u01a1\u0309i nh\u01b0\u0303ng ra\u0300ng bu\u00f4\u0323c ch\u0103\u0323t h\u01a1n v\u00ea\u0300 s\u01b0\u0323 di chuy\u00ea\u0309n ha\u0300ng ho\u0301a, di\u0323ch vu\u0323, v\u00f4\u0301n, lao \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng, c\u00f4ng ngh\u00ea\u0323, d\u01b0\u0303 li\u00ea\u0323u va\u0300 th\u00f4ng tin. \u0110i\u00ea\u0300u na\u0300y \u0111ang th\u01b0\u0323c s\u01b0\u0323 xa\u0309y ra trong khu v\u01b0\u0323c d\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c, thi\u00ea\u0301t bi\u0323 y t\u00ea\u0301 va\u0300 th\u01b0\u0323c ph\u00e2\u0309m, n\u01a1i ma\u0300 ca\u0301c chi\u0301nh phu\u0309 \u0111ang ban ha\u0300nh ca\u0301c ha\u0323n ch\u00ea\u0301 xu\u00e2\u0301t kh\u00e2\u0309u va\u0300 ca\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323n pha\u0301p ba\u0309o h\u00f4\u0323 kha\u0301c nh\u0103\u0300m pha\u0309n \u01b0\u0301ng \u0111a\u0301p la\u0323i cu\u00f4\u0323c khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng.<\/p>\n

Th\u01b0\u0301 ba\u0309y, pha\u0309n \u01b0\u0301ng ma\u0323nh me\u0303 ch\u00f4\u0301ng la\u0323i ch\u00ea\u0301 \u0111\u00f4\u0323 d\u00e2n chu\u0309<\/em> se\u0303 cu\u0309ng c\u00f4\u0301 th\u00eam xu h\u01b0\u01a1\u0301ng d\u00e2n tu\u0301y va\u0300 gia\u0309m toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u ho\u0301a. Ca\u0301c la\u0303nh \u0111a\u0323o theo chu\u0309 nghi\u0303a d\u00e2n tu\u0301y th\u01b0\u01a1\u0300ng h\u01b0\u01a1\u0309ng l\u01a1\u0323i t\u01b0\u0300 s\u01b0\u0323 y\u00ea\u0301u ke\u0301m kinh t\u00ea\u0301, th\u00e2\u0301t nghi\u00ea\u0323p tra\u0300n lan va\u0300 b\u00e2\u0301t bi\u0300nh \u0111\u1eb3ng \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng. Trong \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u ki\u00ea\u0323n b\u00e2\u0301t \u00f4\u0309n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 t\u0103ng cao, se\u0303 co\u0301 m\u00f4\u0323t s\u01b0\u0323 th\u00f4i thu\u0301c ma\u0323nh me\u0303 \u0111\u00ea\u0309 \u201ct\u00ea\u0301 th\u00e2\u0300n\u201d nh\u01b0\u0303ng ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c ngoa\u0300i cho cu\u00f4\u0323c khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng na\u0300y. Ca\u0301c c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n \u201cc\u00f4\u0309 xanh\u201d va\u0300 \u0111a\u0323i \u0111a s\u00f4\u0301 t\u00e2\u0300ng l\u01a1\u0301p trung l\u01b0u se\u0303 tr\u01a1\u0309 n\u00ean nha\u0323y ca\u0309m h\u01a1n v\u01a1\u0301i chu\u0309 nghi\u0303a d\u00e2n tu\u0301y, nh\u00e2\u0301t la\u0300 v\u01a1\u0301i ca\u0301c \u0111\u00ea\u0300 xu\u00e2\u0301t ha\u0323n ch\u00ea\u0301 th\u01b0\u01a1ng ma\u0323i va\u0300 di d\u00e2n.<\/p>\n

Th\u01b0\u0301 ta\u0301m, cu\u00f4\u0323c \u0111\u00f4\u0301i \u0111\u00e2\u0300u \u0111i\u0323a chi\u00ea\u0301n l\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c gi\u01b0\u0303a Hoa Ky\u0300 va\u0300 Trung Qu\u00f4\u0301c<\/em>. S\u01b0\u0323 ta\u0301ch r\u01a1\u0300i va\u0300 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng gi\u01b0\u0303a hai c\u01b0\u01a1\u0300ng qu\u00f4\u0301c na\u0300y trong th\u01b0\u01a1ng ma\u0323i, c\u00f4ng ngh\u00ea\u0323, \u0111\u00e2\u0300u t\u01b0, d\u01b0\u0303 li\u00ea\u0323u va\u0300 ca\u0301c s\u0103\u0301p x\u00ea\u0301p ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323 se\u0303 ca\u0300ng gia t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

Th\u01b0\u0301 chi\u0301n, cu\u00f4\u0323c chi\u00ea\u0301n tranh la\u0323nh m\u01a1\u0301i co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 xa\u0309y ra<\/em>. Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 gi\u01b0\u0303a Hoa Ky\u0300 v\u01a1\u0301iTrung Qu\u00f4\u0301c ma\u0300 co\u0300n v\u01a1\u0301i nhi\u00ea\u0300u qu\u00f4\u0301c gia kha\u0301c. Chi\u00ea\u0301n tranh ma\u0323ng va\u0300 ti\u00ea\u0300m ta\u0300ng ke\u0301o theo ca\u0301c cu\u00f4\u0323c \u0111u\u0323ng \u0111\u00f4\u0323 qu\u00e2n s\u01b0\u0323. Va\u0300 b\u01a1\u0309i vi\u0300 c\u00f4ng ngh\u00ea\u0323 la\u0300 vu\u0303 khi\u0301 chi\u0300a kho\u0301a trong cu\u00f4\u0323c chi\u00ea\u0301n n\u0103\u0301m quy\u00ea\u0300n ki\u00ea\u0309m soa\u0301t ca\u0301c nga\u0300nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u00ea\u0323p t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai va\u0300 chi\u00ea\u0301n \u0111\u00e2\u0301u ch\u00f4\u0301ng la\u0323i ca\u0301c tr\u00e2\u0323n \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch, khu v\u01b0\u0323c c\u00f4ng ngh\u00ea\u0323 t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n Hoa Ky\u0300 se\u0303 nga\u0300y ca\u0300ng t\u0103ng t\u00f4\u0301c ti\u0301ch h\u01a1\u0323p va\u0300o t\u00f4\u0309ng th\u00ea\u0309 ph\u01b0\u0301c h\u01a1\u0323p c\u00f4ng nghi\u00ea\u0323p \u2013 an ninh \u2013 qu\u00f4\u0301c gia.<\/p>\n

Cu\u00f4\u0301i cu\u0300ng, ru\u0309i ro kh\u00f4ng th\u00ea\u0309 bo\u0309 qua \u0111o\u0301 la\u0300 s\u01b0\u0323 ta\u0300n pha\u0301 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0300ng<\/em>, nh\u01b0 cu\u00f4\u0323c khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng Covid-19 \u0111a\u0303 ch\u1ec9 ra, co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 g\u00e2y t\u00f4\u0309n ha\u0323i n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 h\u01a1n ca\u0309 m\u00f4\u0323t cu\u00f4\u0323c khu\u0309ng hoa\u0300ng ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh \u0111\u01a1n thu\u00e2\u0300n<\/em>. Ca\u0301c na\u0323n di\u0323ch b\u00ea\u0323nh ta\u0301i pha\u0301t (HIV th\u00e2\u0323p ni\u00ean 1980, SARS n\u0103m 2003, H1N1 n\u0103m 2009, MERS n\u0103m 2011, Ebola n\u0103m 2014-16, gi\u00f4\u0301ng nh\u01b0 bi\u00ea\u0301n \u0111\u00f4\u0309i khi\u0301 h\u00e2\u0323u, v\u00ea\u0300 c\u01a1 ba\u0309n la\u0300 nh\u01b0\u0303ng tha\u0309m ho\u0323a do con ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i ta\u0323o ra, do ti\u00eau chu\u00e2\u0309n v\u00ea\u0323 sinh va\u0300 y t\u00ea\u0301 ke\u0301m, la\u0323m du\u0323ng h\u00ea\u0323 th\u00f4\u0301ng t\u01b0\u0323 nhi\u00ean, va\u0300 s\u01b0\u0323 k\u00ea\u0301t n\u00f4\u0301i nga\u0300y ca\u0300ng gia t\u0103ng cu\u0309a m\u00f4\u0323t th\u00ea\u0301 gi\u01a1\u0301i toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u ho\u0301a. Ca\u0301c tr\u00e2\u0323n \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch va\u0300 nhi\u00ea\u0300u tri\u00ea\u0323u ch\u01b0\u0301ng b\u00ea\u0323nh t\u00e2\u0323t co\u0301 ngu\u00f4\u0300n g\u00f4\u0301c t\u01b0\u0300 bi\u00ea\u0301n \u0111\u00f4\u0309i khi\u0301 h\u00e2\u0323u se\u0303 tr\u01a1\u0309 n\u00ean th\u01b0\u01a1\u0300ng xuy\u00ean, nghi\u00eam tro\u0323ng va\u0300 t\u00f4\u0301n ke\u0301m h\u01a1n trong nh\u01b0\u0303ng n\u0103m s\u0103\u0301p t\u01a1\u0301i.<\/p>\n

Theo Gia\u0301o s\u01b0 Roubini, m\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i ru\u0309i ro na\u0300y th\u00e2\u0323m chi\u0301 \u0111a\u0303 xu\u00e2\u0301t hi\u00ea\u0323n tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c khi \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch Covid-19 xa\u0309y ra, gi\u01a1\u0300 \u0111\u00e2y \u0111ang \u0111e do\u0323a ch\u00e2m ngo\u0300i cho m\u00f4\u0323t tr\u00e2\u0323n ba\u0303o hoa\u0300n ha\u0309o que\u0301t toa\u0300n b\u00f4\u0323 n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u \u0111i va\u0300o m\u00f4\u0323t th\u00e2\u0323p ni\u00ean tuy\u00ea\u0323t vo\u0323ng. \u0110\u00ea\u0301n th\u00e2\u0323p ni\u00ean 2030, c\u00f4ng ngh\u00ea\u0323 va\u0300 nh\u01b0\u0303ng ta\u0300i n\u0103ng la\u0303nh \u0111a\u0323o chi\u0301nh tri\u0323 co\u0301 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u0323c h\u01a1n co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 se\u0303 la\u0300m gia\u0309m, gia\u0309i quy\u00ea\u0301t hay t\u00f4\u0301i thi\u00ea\u0309u ho\u0301a nhi\u00ea\u0300u trong s\u00f4\u0301 ca\u0301c tru\u0323c tr\u0103\u0323c na\u0300y, giu\u0301p x\u00e2y d\u01b0\u0323ng m\u00f4\u0323t tr\u00e2\u0323t t\u01b0\u0323 th\u00ea\u0301 gi\u01a1\u0301i \u00f4\u0309n \u0111i\u0323nh, h\u01a1\u0323p ta\u0301c, va\u0300 h\u01a1\u0323p nh\u00e2\u0301t nhi\u00ea\u0300u h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0ng b\u00e2\u0301t ky\u0300 k\u00ea\u0301t cu\u0323c co\u0301 h\u00e2\u0323u na\u0300o thi\u0300 cu\u0303ng d\u01b0\u0323a tr\u00ean gia\u0309 \u0111i\u0323nh la\u0300 chu\u0301ng ta c\u00e2\u0300n ti\u0300m ra \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ca\u0301ch th\u01b0\u0301c s\u00f4\u0301ng so\u0301t tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c cu\u00f4\u0323c \u0110a\u0323i Suy thoa\u0301i l\u00e2\u0300n na\u0300y \u0111a\u0303.<\/p>\n

Suy thoa\u0301i co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 chi\u0309 la\u0300 hi\u0300nh ch\u01b0\u0303 V<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kha\u0301c v\u01a1\u0301i hai quan \u0111i\u00ea\u0309m tr\u00ean, m\u00f4\u0323t s\u00f4\u0301 ca\u0301c nha\u0300 kinh t\u00ea\u0301 cho r\u0103\u0300ng co\u0301 s\u01b0\u0323 kha\u0301c bi\u00ea\u0323t l\u01a1\u0301n gi\u01b0\u0303a cu\u00f4\u0323c khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng kinh t\u00ea\u0301 hi\u00ea\u0323n nay do Covid-19 g\u00e2y ra v\u01a1\u0301i ca\u0301c cu\u00f4\u0323c \u0110a\u0323i Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng nh\u01b0\u0303ng n\u0103m 1930 va\u0300 khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u 2007-2008.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i Hoa Ky\u0300, theo c\u01b0\u0323u chu\u0309 ti\u0323ch Cu\u0323c D\u01b0\u0323 tr\u01b0\u0303 Li\u00ean bang Ben Bernanke, s\u01b0\u0323 su\u0323p \u0111\u00f4\u0309 cu\u0309a h\u00ea\u0323 th\u00f4\u0301ng ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh la\u0300 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n chi\u0301nh cu\u0309a \u0110a\u0323i Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng 1929-1933 va\u0300 khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng 2007-2008. So v\u01a1\u0301i tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c \u0111\u00e2y thi\u0300 hi\u00ea\u0323n gi\u01a1\u0300 h\u00ea\u0323 th\u00f4\u0301ng ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh va\u0300 ng\u00e2n ha\u0300ng ma\u0323nh h\u01a1n va\u0300 co\u0301 v\u00f4\u0301n ho\u0301a t\u00f4\u0301t h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0\u0303ng n\u0103m 1930 va\u0300 giai \u0111oa\u0323n 2007-2009, sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t c\u00f4ng nghi\u00ea\u0323p \u0111a\u0303 gia\u0309m l\u00e2\u0300n l\u01b0\u01a1\u0323t h\u01a1n m\u00f4\u0323t n\u01b0\u0309a va\u0300 khoa\u0309ng 15%. Giai \u0111oa\u0323n 1929-1933, n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 suy gia\u0309m 43 tha\u0301ng, th\u00e2\u0301t nghi\u00ea\u0323p khoa\u0309ng 25% va\u0300 duy tri\u0300 tr\u00ean 10% m\u00f4\u0323t th\u00e2\u0323p ni\u00ean. Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng 2007-2008 suy gia\u0309m kinh t\u00ea\u0301 ke\u0301o da\u0300i 18 tha\u0301ng va\u0300 th\u00e2\u0301t nghi\u00ea\u0323p khoa\u0309ng 10%. L\u00e2\u0300n na\u0300y, ti\u0301nh \u0111\u00ea\u0301n tha\u0301ng 4\/2020, th\u00e2\u0301t nghi\u00ea\u0323p khoa\u0309ng 14,7% va\u0300 \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nga\u0300y nay ho\u0323 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c an toa\u0300n h\u01a1n b\u01a1\u0309i ma\u0323ng l\u01b0\u01a1\u0301i an sinh nh\u01b0 ba\u0309o hi\u00ea\u0309m th\u00e2\u0301t nghi\u00ea\u0323p va\u0300 tr\u01a1\u0323 c\u00e2\u0301p. Do v\u00e2\u0323y, m\u00f4\u0323t s\u00f4\u0301 nha\u0300 kinh t\u00ea\u0301 tin r\u0103\u0300ng kinh t\u00ea\u0301 co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 phu\u0323c h\u00f4\u0309i trong n\u0103m nay ho\u0103\u0323c \u0111\u00e2\u0300u n\u0103m t\u01a1\u0301i n\u00ea\u0301u virus \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c ki\u00ea\u0309m soa\u0301t.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u01b0\u0323 nh\u01b0 \u0110a\u0323i Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng 1929-1933, s\u01b0\u0323 su\u0323p \u0111\u00f4\u0309 kinh t\u00ea\u0301 nga\u0300y nay cu\u0303ng tr\u00ean di\u00ea\u0323n r\u00f4\u0323ng nh\u01b0ng co\u0301 quy m\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o la\u0300 nho\u0309 h\u01a1n. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0309ng cu\u0309a ca\u0301c n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 pha\u0301t tri\u00ea\u0309n gia\u0309m khoa\u0309ng 16% \u01a1\u0309 \u0110a\u0323i Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng, ri\u00eang khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng hi\u00ea\u0323n ta\u0323i \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o khoa\u0309ng 6% n\u0103m nay.<\/p>\n

Sai l\u00e2\u0300m chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch \u0111a\u0303 go\u0301p ph\u00e2\u0300n la\u0300m tr\u00e2\u0300m tro\u0323ng th\u00eam th\u01a1\u0300i gian va\u0300 m\u01b0\u0301c \u0111\u00f4\u0323 nghi\u00eam tro\u0323ng cu\u0309a cu\u00f4\u0323c \u0110a\u0323i Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng 1929-1933. Ca\u0301c ng\u00e2n ha\u0300ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng th\u0103\u0301t ch\u0103\u0323t chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323 \u0111\u00ea\u0309 duy tri\u0300 ti\u00eau chu\u00e2\u0309n va\u0300ng. K\u00ea\u0301t qua\u0309 la\u0300 gia\u0309m pha\u0301t \u2013 n\u01a1\u0323 gia t\u0103ng va\u0300 gia\u0309m thu nh\u00e2\u0323p. Trong khi ti\u00eau chu\u00e2\u0309n na\u0300y nga\u0300y nay kh\u00f4ng co\u0300n t\u00f4\u0300n ta\u0323i. Cu\u0303ng trong th\u01a1\u0300i ky\u0300 \u0110a\u0323i Khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng, ca\u0301c chi\u0301nh phu\u0309 ban \u0111\u00e2\u0300u c\u0103\u0301t gia\u0309m chi ti\u00eau vi\u0300 ngu\u00f4\u0300n thu gia\u0309m. Khi kinh t\u00ea\u0301 y\u00ea\u0301u \u0111i, ca\u0301c qu\u00f4\u0301c gia ba\u0309o v\u00ea\u0323 ca\u0301c nga\u0300nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u00ea\u0323p trong n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c b\u0103\u0300ng ca\u0301c ra\u0300o ca\u0309n th\u01b0\u01a1ng ma\u0323i. H\u00ea\u0323 qua\u0309 cu\u00f4\u0301i cu\u0300ng la\u0300 nhu c\u00e2\u0300u toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u suy gia\u0309m va\u0300 ti\u0300nh hi\u0300nh nga\u0300y ca\u0300ng t\u00f4\u0300i t\u00ea\u0323 th\u00eam.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i suy thoa\u0301i l\u00e2\u0300n na\u0300y, ngay t\u01b0\u0300 \u0111\u00e2\u0300u ca\u0301c ng\u00e2n ha\u0300ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ean th\u00ea\u0301 gi\u01a1\u0301i \u0111a\u0303 gia\u0309m la\u0303i su\u00e2\u0301t, n\u01a1\u0301i lo\u0309ng \u0111i\u0323nh l\u01b0\u01a1\u0323ng va\u0300 thu\u0301c \u0111\u00e2\u0309y ti\u0301n du\u0323ng. Nhi\u00ea\u0300u chi\u0301nh phu\u0309 th\u00f4ng qua ca\u0301c go\u0301i chi ti\u00eau l\u01a1\u0301n va\u0300 \u01b0u \u0111a\u0303i thu\u00ea\u0301 \u0111\u00ea\u0309 tr\u01a1\u0323 nh\u0103\u0300m giu\u0301p ca\u0301c doanh nghi\u00ea\u0323p \u01a1\u0309 t\u00e2\u0301t ca\u0309 ca\u0301c quy m\u00f4 duy tri\u0300 hoa\u0323t \u0111\u00f4\u0323ng va\u0300 s\u0103\u0303n sa\u0300ng n\u00f4\u0301i la\u0323i vi\u00ea\u0323c la\u0300m khi kho\u0301 kh\u0103n qua \u0111i. Ra\u0300o ca\u0309n th\u01b0\u01a1ng ma\u0323i \u0111\u00ea\u0309 \u0111\u00f4\u0301i pho\u0301 v\u01a1\u0301i \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch cu\u0303ng kh\u00f4ng co\u0300n \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c xem la\u0300 \u01b0u ti\u00ean nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c.<\/p>\n

Thay l\u01a1\u0300i k\u00ea\u0301t<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ai la\u0300 ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o \u0111u\u0301ng h\u01a1n? Co\u0301 le\u0303 c\u00e2u tra\u0309 l\u01a1\u0300i chi\u0301nh xa\u0301c nh\u00e2\u0301t se\u0303 thu\u00f4\u0323c v\u00ea\u0300 th\u01a1\u0300i gian. Cu\u0303ng nh\u01b0 ca\u0301c cu\u00f4\u0323c suy thoa\u0301i tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c \u0111\u00e2y. B\u0103\u0300ng ch\u01b0\u0301ng d\u01b0\u0303 li\u00ea\u0323u va\u0300 di\u00ea\u0303n bi\u00ea\u0301n h\u00e2\u0323u khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng se\u0303 giu\u0301p chu\u0301ng ta th\u00e2\u0301y \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c nh\u01b0\u0303ng gi\u0300 quan tro\u0323ng c\u00e2\u0300n ru\u0301t ra cho vi\u00ea\u0323c nghi\u00ean c\u01b0\u0301u va\u0300 hoa\u0323ch \u0111i\u0323nh chi\u0301nh sa\u0301ch nh\u0103\u0300m \u0111\u00f4\u0301i pho\u0301 v\u01a1\u0301i nh\u01b0\u0303ng gi\u0300 co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 se\u0303 xa\u0309y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u2013 \u0111o\u0301 la\u0300 nh\u01b0\u0303ng cu\u00f4\u0323c khu\u0309ng hoa\u0309ng va\u0300 suy thoa\u0301i t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u01b0\u0323 h\u01b0\u0301a he\u0323n se\u0303 xu\u00e2\u0301t hi\u00ea\u0323n.<\/p>\n

\n

[1] Ng\u01b0\u01a1\u0300i vi\u00ea\u0301t: Ch\u00e2u V\u0103n Tha\u0300nh, gia\u0309ng vi\u00ean Khoa Kinh t\u00ea\u0301, Tr\u01b0\u01a1\u0300ng \u0110a\u0323i ho\u0323c Kinh t\u00ea\u0301 TP. HCM (thanhcv@dotv.vn). N\u00f4\u0323i dung \u0111\u01b0\u01a1\u0323c t\u00f4\u0309ng h\u01a1\u0323p t\u01b0\u0300 ca\u0301c ba\u0300i vi\u00ea\u0301t cu\u0309a ca\u0301c ta\u0301c gia\u0309 du\u0300ng la\u0300m t\u01b0 li\u00ea\u0323u tham kha\u0309o. Hoa\u0300n tha\u0300nh nga\u0300y 16\/05\/2020.<\/p>\n

[2] Ta\u0323m di\u0323ch t\u01b0\u0300 \u201cThose who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it\u201d<\/p>\n

[3] Jeffrey Frankel, Gia\u0301o s\u01b0 Kinh t\u00ea\u0301 ho\u0323c \u0110a\u0323i ho\u0323c Harvard University, tha\u0300nh vi\u00ean ban c\u00f4\u0301 v\u00e2\u0301n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 chi\u0301nh quy\u00ea\u0300n Bill Clinton. \u00d4ng la\u0300 nha\u0300 nghi\u00ean c\u01b0\u0301u cu\u0309a Ban Nghi\u00ean c\u01b0\u0301u Kinh t\u00ea\u0301 Qu\u00f4\u0301c gia Hoa Ky\u0300 (NBER), U\u0309y ban Gia\u0301m sa\u0301t Chu ky\u0300 Kinh t\u00ea\u0301 (Business Cycle Dating Committee), nghi\u00ean c\u01b0\u0301u v\u00ea\u0300 nh\u01b0\u0303ng v\u00e2\u0301n \u0111\u00ea\u0300 suy thoa\u0301i va\u0300 h\u00f4\u0300i phu\u0323c kinh t\u00ea\u0301 cu\u0309a Hoa Ky\u0300.<\/p>\n

[4] Nouriel Roubini, Gia\u0301o s\u01b0 Kinh t\u00ea\u0301 ho\u0323c, \u0110a\u0323i ho\u0323c New York; Chu\u0309 ti\u0323ch Hi\u00ea\u0323p h\u00f4\u0323i Roubini Macro Associates, t\u01b0\u0300ng la\u0300 Nha\u0300 T\u01b0 v\u00e2\u0301n Kinh t\u00ea\u0301 Nha\u0300 Tr\u0103\u0301ng trong chi\u0301nh quy\u00ea\u0300n Clinton. \u00d4ng la\u0300m vi\u00ea\u0323c cho Quy\u0303 Ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323 Qu\u00f4\u0301c t\u00ea\u0301 IMF, Fed va\u0300 Ng\u00e2n ha\u0300ng Th\u00ea\u0301 gi\u01a1\u0301i. Trang web ca\u0301 nh\u00e2n: NourielRoubini.com.<\/p>\n

[5] \u0110\u00ea\u0301n gi\u01b0\u0303a tha\u0301ng 4\/2020 \u0111a\u0303 co\u0301 h\u01a1n 90 qu\u00f4\u0301c gia ti\u0300m \u0111\u00ea\u0301n Quy\u0303 Ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u00ea\u0323 Qu\u00f4\u0301c t\u00ea\u0301 IMF va\u0300 Ng\u00e2n ha\u0300ng Th\u00ea\u0301 gi\u01a1\u0301i WB \u0111\u00ea\u0309 k\u00eau go\u0323i ngu\u00f4\u0300n ta\u0300i tr\u01a1\u0323 kh\u00e2\u0309n c\u00e2\u0301p. R\u00e2\u0301t nhi\u00ea\u0300u trong s\u00f4\u0301 \u0111o\u0301 la\u0300 ca\u0301c n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c \u0111ang pha\u0301t tri\u00ea\u0309n.<\/p>\n

[6] T\u00f4\u0309 ch\u01b0\u0301c Th\u01b0\u01a1ng ma\u0323i Th\u00ea\u0301 gi\u01a1\u0301i (WTO) \u01b0\u01a1\u0301c ti\u0301nh th\u01b0\u01a1ng ma\u0323i toa\u0300n c\u00e2\u0300u se\u0303 gia\u0309m khoa\u0309ng 13-32% n\u0103m 2020. Ca\u0301c n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t va\u0300 xu\u00e2\u0301t kh\u00e2\u0309u d\u00e2\u0300u ho\u0309a (va\u0300 r\u00e2\u0301t nhi\u00ea\u0300u ca\u0301c n\u01b0\u01a1\u0301c sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t ha\u0300ng ho\u0301a c\u01a1 ba\u0309n) \u0111ang pha\u0309i ga\u0301nh chi\u0323u h\u00e2\u0323u qua\u0309 cu\u0309a cu\u00f4\u0323c chi\u00ea\u0301n gia\u0301 ca\u0309 gi\u01b0\u0303a Saudi Arabia va\u0300 Nga va\u0300 bi\u0323 ha\u0323 b\u00e2\u0323c x\u00ea\u0301p ha\u0323ng ti\u0301n nhi\u00ea\u0323m qu\u00f4\u0301c gia.<\/p>\n

Ta\u0300i li\u00ea\u0323u tham kha\u0309o<\/strong><\/p>\n

Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (4\/2020). Suspend Emerging and Developing Economies\u2019 Debt Payment. Chuy\u00ean trang Project Syndicate: https:\/\/www.projectsyndicate.org\/.<\/p>\n

Jeffrey Frankel (5\/2020). How To Avoid a W-shaped Recession. Chuy\u00ean trang Project Syndicate https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/.<\/p>\n

Nouriel Roubini (4\/2020). The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s. Chuy\u00ean trang Project Syndicate https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/vnexpress.net\/khung-hoang-kinh-te-vi-covid-19-khong-te-bang-dai-suy-thoai4097291.html<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u0110A\u0323I DI\u0323CH COVID-19 VA\u0300 HI\u0300NH DA\u0323NG SUY THOA\u0301I KINH T\u00ca\u03011 Ch\u00e2u V\u0103n Th\u00e0nh \u201cNh\u01b0\u0303ng ai kh\u00f4ng th\u00ea\u0309 nh\u01a1\u0301 qua\u0301 kh\u01b0\u0301 thi\u0300 kh\u00f4ng tra\u0301nh kho\u0309i l\u0103\u0323p la\u0323i chi\u0301nh \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u \u0111o\u0301 m\u00f4\u0323t l\u00e2\u0300n n\u01b0\u0303a\u201d2 la\u0300 c\u00e2u ch\u00e2m bi\u00ea\u0301m n\u00f4\u0309i ti\u00ea\u0301ng cu\u0309a George Santayana va\u0300o n\u0103m 1905. Li\u0323ch s\u01b0\u0309 ca\u0301c tr\u00e2\u0323n \u0111a\u0323i di\u0323ch \u0111a\u0303 \u0111\u00e2\u0309y n\u00ea\u0300n kinh t\u00ea\u0301","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6072,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[184,107],"tags":[],"acf":[],"lang":"vi","translations":{"vi":6070},"pll_sync_post":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6070"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6070"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6070\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6078,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6070\/revisions\/6078"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6072"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/se.dotv.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}